Strap Yourself In, We’re Playing Some Brett Kavanaugh Roulette

I’m not going to tell you to do it, but I’m not going to tell you not to do it: lets play some Brett Kavanaugh Roulette.

We’ve got three hunches to follow. The first one is that this hearing is sponsored by Coca-Cola, most likely to offset budget cuts due to BCA sequestration. Thanks for nothing, John Boehner.

Coke bottle

Back to betting. I’ve got two markets for you, but to be honest, after seeing Dr. Ford’s very sympathetic and sincere testimony, I’m quaking in my boots. Judge Kavanaugh is going to need to install a few personality upgrades if he’s going to survive his day in court. And by “day in court” I mean his, “fourth day in the Senate.”

If you watch Kav’s Fox News interview below, I’m sure you’ll agree that the whole, “I am a robot,” and “robots can’t have sex” defense probably isn’t going to work against the more sophisticated opposition of Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Cory Sparticus (D-NJ) that awaits him.


Will the Senate Judiciary Committee Vote on Kavanaugh in September? I took “YES” at 47 cents.

Jud Kavanaugh

If you’ve listened to our podcast, you know my take on this: Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation no longer has anything to do with Brett Kavanaugh. Instead, two dueling conspiracy theories about American culture are being projected onto Kav’s Leave It to Beaver haircut.

On the Right: a host of unsubstantiated allegations against Brett Kavanaugh is part of the Democratic Party’s campaign to make it illegal to be a conservative.

On the Left: Trump and McConnell’s plan to ram-rod Brett Kavanaugh onto the Supreme Court is yet another example of a fraudulent Republican Majority getting its rocks off by suppressing women and minorities.

As long as this confirmation battle is operating at the emotional, non-rational level, you can expect the Judiciary Committee to kick the big question to the whole Senate.

But when will they vote?

ASAP. There is nothing for Chairman Grassley (R-IA) to gain by letting his members spend the weekend second-guessing their yea vote. The news coverage of this story is ugly and will only encourage them to fold. So here’s a guarantee: if the Senate Judiciary Committee doesn’t approve this nomination by EOD Friday, it’s dead in the water.

What about Trump? Well, the President is the spoiler here. He could withdrawal Kavanaugh’s nomination.

That’s why they call it “gambling.”

Will Bob Corker Vote for Kavanaugh by 10/31? I bought “Yes” at 58 cents.

Corker Bet

We’re really juiced-up on transparency here, so let me start with this: I am getting clobbered in this market. It’s ugly. But I’m not selling — I’ve got stronger hands than a Democrat clutching defeat. I’m not letting this go, not yet.

Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) makes a lot of news criticizing Trump, so dummies think that he’ll split with the White House on this confirmation. But that’s not really how Bobby Chatt-Town rolls. Corker chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. When he takes Trump to task, it’s over that — foreign relations.  On domestic issues, Corker is a reliable company man who has been squawking like a seagull that he thinks Kavanaugh’s a good dude who needs an up or down vote. If Kavanaugh makes it to the Senate floor, this bet is a lock. If he doesn’t, I’m getting hosed.

Actually, I’m not, because there is free money all over PredictIt and I’ll just go get some of that.

Will Brett Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

I’m not betting on these markets because: (1) I’m not smart enough to have an edge; (2) I’m not dumb enough to think I do; and (3) I don’t have the iron cojones to ball out like a big timer.

There are still too many variables to compute. It’s still uncertain whether Kavanaugh will make it through committee, if he’ll blow it, or if the President will have a change of heart and yank him off the stage. The odds on his final confirmation are not attractive enough to justify the risk and volatility.

Enter into the fray at your own risk. I’m already in a pool of sweat .


UPDATE: Sold my position on Judiciary Committee voting by Friday for 83 cents. That’s a 83% profit. Free money!

Screenshot 2018-09-27 16.00.12

Corker shares trading at 74 cents. Still holding those.

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