I’ve been watching this market heat-up on PredictIt: “Will a Democratic Vote Yea on Kavanugh Before 10/31?”
First of all, if you want a deeper dive, check out our EMERGENCY INVESTORS CALL.
But for now, let’s talk about why it’s looking like the Rs could peal-off a Democrat or two to get Kavanaugh over the line.
First of all, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is a total savage. His refusal to back down has the heat cranked-up so high on Trump-state Democrats that their silicon cheek implants are literally one press conference away from melting out of their pores. For Democrats like Joe Manchin (WV), Joe Donnelly (IN), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), and Claire McCaskill (MO), their vote on Brett Kavanaugh is either a no-win or a chili supper full of heartburn. They can vote “YES” and appease the Obama-Trump populists we’ve heard so much about; or they can vote “NO” and meet the minimum expectations of the suburban female voters who are cranking the oars for the whole Democratic Party.
The question is a little different in each race. Indiana (Donnelly) and Missouri (McCaskill) are both states that are home to big cities, so there are probably more votes to gain — or potentially lose — in the suburban female category. Also, let’s not discount the fact that Progressives are the ones walking voter precincts to turn out the blue wave. Democrats might need to recruit voters with man-caves full of Nickelback albums, but the people doing the legwork are the true believers. Piss them off at your own risk.
That brings us to West Virginia and North Dakota, where Democrats don’t have a piggy bank full of suburban, college-educated females to lean on. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) opponent, Patrick Morrissey leaked an internal poll this week that showed him neck-and-neck with the incumbent. This was a shocker because Uncle Joe looked to be in post position coming down the stretch. Meanwhile, in North Dakota, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average has Sen. Heidi Heitkamp trailing her GOP challenger by 1.6 points. And though I just told you I think it’ll be easier for Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill to hold the party line, they too are fighting for their lives. RCP has Donnelly at +0.5% and McCaskill at -2%.
HOW ARE WE BETTING THIS?
Everyone in Washington with a Twitter handle and an intern badge thinks that Joe Manchin is a lock to vote for Kavanaugh. Indeed, he’s been as quiet as an abandoned coal mine on the subject, which you can take either way. But I don’t really like that bet. There is too much weird and wild going on surrounding the Brett Kavanaugh question. What motivates an individual Senator on the margin is too cloudy for me to risk money on. But I am willing to bet that one of these four will cross party lines when Kavanaugh’s name is called on the Senate floor.
WHAT ARE THE KNOWN UNKNOWNS OF THIS BET?
— Will the FBI find something to corroborate the accusations against Kav? Nope.
— Will another “scandal” break? Yup.
— Will it reveal undeniable facts about an unpardonable crime? Nope.
— Will Trump withdraw Kavanaugh’s nomination? Maybe. Caligula was more predictable than that guy.
Buy an entry position in this market. Hold it until the FBI report comes out, then decide if you want to dump it or double down.
And if you want more info, check out our podcast and our EMERGENCY INVESTORS CALL.
This is going to be a bumpy week. You’ll need some strong hands if you want to play.