I was getting my daily dose of Toontown a.k.a., “Washington, D.C.” today when I had the pleasant surprise of seeing that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) basically thinks we’re geniuses for betting Brett Kavanaugh the way we are.
If you read our EMERGENCY INVESTORS CALL, you know that we’re as confident that Brett Kavanaugh is getting confirmed by the Senate as this guy is that he can turn the tide against Ted Cruz (R-TX) by driving a billboard all over the Lone Star State.
Back to the point. We’ve said that: “A one-week FBI probe isn’t going to dredge-up anything new on teenage Kav’s sexual proclivities; and if it does, it’ll just be another he-said-she said episode inside a prep school pantry. That’s not going to be compelling enough to flip Republican votes. In fact, it might do the opposite. An FBI report that either: (1) clears Kavanaugh; or (2) fails to corroborate any of the accusations against him might be all the cover that embattled Democrats like Joe Manchin (WV), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), and Joe Donnelly (IN) need to switch their votes to a YES.”
Here’s the Senate Majority Leader’s Official endorsement of this premise:
TL:DR. The important part:
“So soon, I expect, we’ll hear that the conclusions of the expert prosecutor who questioned both witnesses [Ford and Kavanaugh] at last week’s hearing aren’t reliable. Or that the FBI’s investigation was not infinite or endless enough for their liking. Maybe we’ll hear that the real issue is not these uncorroborated allegations of misconduct, after all. But rather the fact that Judge Kavanaugh – now listen to this – drank beer in high school and college. Or the fact that he was rightfully angry – who wouldn’t be – that his good name and his family have been dragged through the mud with a campaign of character assassination based on allegations that lack any corroboration.”
If you weed-out the politics, we’re left with this: it’s going to be status quo ante when the Senate revisits Brett Kavanaugh later this week. Which basically means that this vote is going to go the same way your freshman-year breakup did: You got in a big fight with her. You took a break. That next Saturday, you tried to talk it out over the keg. But instead you wound up telling her to “chill out” because you were a drunk asshole; and she wound up throwing a Solo cup full of Natty Ice all over your pink Polo because she’d been mainlining vodka and Crystal Light since 8 PM. Same result, just one week later.
That’s what’s about to happen in the Senate.
Don’t be a dummy though. Buy a few hedges in this market to limit your exposure. Honestly, I’ll admit that I get spooked by the volatility around Kavanaugh and am accumulating a small hedge just so I don’t blow all that money I made on Bobby Chat-Town (R-TN) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) last week if this thing goes south.
Here’s your hedge:
But when will the vote happen? According to the Godfather:
“..we’ll be voting this week.”
Mehhhhhh. We’ll see about that. But for now, I’m HOLDING my YES’s on Kavanaugh.