Okay, so it’s time to think big. We’re headed to the final act of the Brett Kavanaugh story, which means the real journalists have moved on to conversations about what this episode means to the character of the nation. Welp, if you follow this blog, you know that that is one question that we absolutely, positively, do not touch. So it’s on to the next thing.
And that next thing is one, giant ALPHA ALERT!!!!
Look at this Senate map and get creative, you animals:
You might see 50 states and 35 Senate seats up for re-election, but what I see is opportunity. My political windsock is full of hot air right now and this is what it’s telling me: the Kavanaugh Circus is flipping the trade winds in a few key places.
Background: For the past few months, we’ve been watching some Senate races that have had us feeling like we were living in the Upside-Down. In Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn has been locked in a honky-tonk two-step with former Democratic Governor Phil Breseden. And in Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri, Democratic incumbents like Joe Donnelly (IN), Heidi Heitkamp, and Claire McCaskill (MO) seemed to be cruising towards re-election despite the fact that their constituents spent the 2016 election butt-chugging #MAGA Kool-Aid and pretending to be Ayn Rand experts while they rode the bus to Trump Town.
Pundits have explained these contradictory trends by pointing out that: (1) Trump’s style has angered the Democratic base more than an almond milk shortage; (2) that Trump’s constant swirl of scandal and propensity towards goring liberal scared cows has manufactured the “Blue Wave” for them; and (3) Republicans have used their enormous majority to do almost nothing. For the last two years, the GOP has basically occupied itself with slipping on legislative banana peals and passing a tax cut that no one likes.
Now, back to the present: You can disagree about who is right and who is wrong, but there is no denying that the Democratic campaign to crush Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination under the weight of 36 years of skeletons in his closet is looking like it might backfire. New polls are showing that for the first time since 2016, Republican voters are as fired-up to vote as Democrats. In industry parlance, this means that “the enthusiasm gap” that eggheads have been reporting on is basically nil.
Let me say it more clearly: for the “Blue Wave” to really hit, Democrats are counting on a lot of Republicans to stay at home eating Cheetos this November. It’s now looking like that won’t happen. It’s looking like a lot of formally apathetic GOP voters are going to show up at the polls, thanks to this Kavanaugh rough-housing.
What does that mean for how we are betting?
Well, first of all, I’ll go and boof myself in public if the Dems don’t win the House. We’ll post back sometime with some House races that we do like the odds on (spoiler alert: we’re looking in Texas and Illinois right now).
As for the Senate, I’m looking for an entry point in one of these races. I haven’t bought yet but am doing my homework and seeing if I like the odds. Indiana, Tennessee, and North Dakota are all places that Republicans should have an advantage.
Check back a little later and we’ll hit with you some hot fire on where our money is headed.