Okay, sports fans, we are t-minus 30 hours from Money Day. FYI, Money Day is what we are calling Brett Kavanaugh’s final confirmation vote, because we are either going to make a lot of dough or cough-up the mean slaughter we made off of Senator Bobby Chatt-Town and Chairman Chuck Grassley last week.
First of all, an important announcement for our first time readers: If you are looking for instructions on how to incinerate yourself in the streets to stop Brett Kavanaugh, look elsewhere. Also, if you are looking for our hot take on why Democrats are a Stalinistic Borg attempting to destroy Judge Kavanaugh’s character and that of any conservative who stands up to them, you will be disappointed. This is not a blog that parses right from wrong. This is a blog that spits truth about what will happen, and we do it through the political betting markets on PredictIt.Org.
First of all, WTF is going to happen to Brett Kavanaugh?
Anyone who says they know the answer to that question is lying. When D.C. knuckles-up for a brawl like this, the usual table-stakes go bye-bye. I’m going to quote my favorite source on this, and by that I mean, I’m going to quote myself:
“Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation no longer has anything to do with Brett Kavanaugh. Instead, two dueling conspiracy theories about American culture are being projected onto Kav’s Leave It to Beaver haircut.
On the Right: a host of unsubstantiated allegations against Brett Kavanaugh is part of the Democratic Party’s campaign to make it illegal to be a conservative.
On the Left: Trump and McConnell’s plan to ram-rod Brett Kavanaugh onto the Supreme Court is yet another example of a fraudulent Republican Majority getting its rocks off by suppressing women and minorities.”
So what is happening right now?
The earth is spinning. You are breathing. And in thousands of franchise locations worldwide, someone in a McDonald’s hat is dropping french fries into hot oil.
Also, in Washington, D.C., the Senate has invoked cloture to get Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination onto the loading docks for his final voyage to the Supreme Court. “Cloture” is fancy talk for shutting down debate in the Senate, which is literally designed to be a perpetual motion device that talks endlessly and acts never. So Mitch McConnell (R-KY) basically flexed nuts and told all the lemmings to get in line to vote. Savage move from the Godfather.
The results of this cloture vote (the “motion to proceed”) have basically reset the odds on Kavanaugh. To explain the results of this vote, I will refer to a graphic that Politico has generously donated to our totally above-the-board blog.
KAVANAUGH CLOTURE VOTE
WTF DOES THIS MEAN???
In the Senate, it is extremely unusual to vote NO on cloture and YES on the actual bill in question. That would be like your mom sending you to bed without dinner and then asking if you want to go to the ice cream store a half-hour later. Not gonna happen.
So the GOP for sure lost Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and potentially gained Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). And we now have our universe of possible outcomes: the Republicans have a maximum of 51 YEA VOTES.
ALPHA ALERT!!! We are geniuses and knew that a long time ago. We didn’t have to wait for the Senate to vote, which is why our betting portfolio has looked like this for last week:
5-to-1 and 10-to-1 that Kavanaugh gets through on a party-line vote? Fire that up!
4-to-1 that he doesn’t make it all (49 or fewer votes). Let’s blaze!
[You can still get in at 18/40/42… might be worth your money]
2-to-1 odds that a Democratic Senator votes for Kavanaugh? I’ll take those odds all day, brah!
[You can still get in at 78 cents. I wouldn’t take those odds.]
[You can still get in at 83 cents. That’s definitely not worth your money]
Yep. I’m betting on yes. But I’m a bucket of sweat, and truth be told, I’ve sold about 2/3 of my position in this market at 82 cents to cover my losses if Kavanaugh doesn’t make it. So yes, I think that the odds favor Kavanaugh, but only by the slightest pinch.
At the end of the day…
From an emotional, political, and financial standpoint, this Brett Kavanaugh thing has been an ordeal. And I mean that literally. A medieval ordeal.
I can’t wait to forget it.
FOR A DEEPER DIVE, CHECK OUT OUR ORIGINAL ANALYSIS: