I have been doing everything possible to decide whether Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN) is going to get re-elected in November. I have read polls, dialed random phone numbers in Indianapolis, and even had a seance with a gypsy fortune teller. However, despite my tireless work ethic, I have no answers for you. There is no way to know who will win this race. So unless you are a genius, an idiot, or a degenerate, do not gamble on it
Reasons not to gamble on Joe Donnelly’s race:
— Both candidates are huge tools. Sen. Donnelly and his challenger, Mike Braun, make Jeb Bush look like a natural. This basically guarantees that the Hoosier State will get a Senator as average as Andrew Luck’s hairline.
— The odds are bad. This race is a coin flip and so are the odds on PredictIt, so there is no price advantage to backing one candidate or another.
— The Libertarian Party is monkeying the whole race up. Libertarian candidate Lucy Benton is polling at around 7-percent of the Hoosier vote. This tells me that either: (1) 7-percent of Indianans are big losers because Benton is going nowhere; or (2) There is a massive number of voters who are completely unaccounted for, because third party voters often choose a real candidate on election day.
Anyone who has seen the Hollywood classic Hoosiers knows that #1 can’t be true, because Gene Hackman is an absolute boss and Hoosiers are winners. Which gives me no choice but to acknowledge that third-party voters are going to absolutely wreck this election. A few examples of this include:
WOOF. Now back to why this race is bonkers and impossible to bet on…
— Indianapolis and the south suburbs of Chicago have the demographic profile of an anti-Trump wave. However…
— The last time the “experts” told us there would be a close Senate race in Indiana (2016), Democrat Evan Bayh got skinned alive by Republican Todd Young.
Disconcerting, bro. Very disconcerting. I clearly have no idea what the fuck is going on in Indiana.
Reasons for idiots to gamble on this race:
— See above.
Reasons for degenerates to gamble on this race:
— 50/50 odds aren’t that bad, are they?
Reasons for geniuses to gamble on this race:
— You have a 100-percent savage turnout model for Indiana Libertarians.
— You have the ability to time travel, and can tell me the future.
I may be a genius, but there is not enough time left to perfect a time machine or Libertarian voter model. Therefore, I will be staying out of this race. Sorry, I never said I was 100-percent alpha.
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