You have no doubt spent the last 24-hours reading very humble takes from the world’s greatest pollsters who have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen in today’s election. To paraphrase, Nate Silver said that there was a 93% chance that someone will win the House or the Senate, and Larry Sabato recently wrote that, “many of these picks â€” though hopefully not too many â€” will be off. But we pick all the races because we believe you deserve our best guess,” which is basically the same thing as saying, “sorry, guys, this is all bullshit but you asked for it.”
Well, election day is here and I, too, am riding half-mast. I’m basically only getting through life by binge-eating benzos and chasing them with cough syrup, which is going to severely mess-up my weekend since that’s usually what I do on Friday’s while I watchÂ Cops.
Before you go any further, I will advise you this: if you want to understand how this election will end, you have two choices: (1) vote, read extensively, and hope for the best; or, (2) watch the thrilling finale of the Hollywood classicÂ Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby which did an incredible job of forecasting the end of this year’s competition between Republicans and Democrats:
So as this election comes to a baffling conclusion, here is where I amÂ parking my cash and credibility:
LAST SECOND MOVES:
— Sen. Dean Heller has been getting crushed in Nevada early voting, so I dumped my shares that I never wanted to buy to begin with. I basically got talked into this by some Republican hucksters at a wedding in Kentucky. Last time I ever take advice from people who are “experts.”
— Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has stood up to a non-stop attacks from President Trump pretty well. I’ve put a small bet on him to hold @ 66 cents.
— I’ve had a small bet on Republican Josh Hawley beating incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and am going to put a few bucks into this trade. Sorry for not telling you guys, I got a day job and all. Just kidding, I don’t. I was really just embarrassed to admit how many R Senate pickups I was predicting.
— I am buying a few YES shares that Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA) holds off his challenger in VA-02 (68 cents on PredictIt). The polls have been favoring him and after a few conversations with Virginia politicos, this one sounds like it’s well above the crest of the “Blue Wave.” Notice that I do not learn from my mistakes (see Heller above).
— I’ve dumped 1/3 of my position on Martha McSally winning Arizona’s Senate race. This one is too close to call and feels like it’s going the wrong way.
— I’ve doubled my position in Nancy Pelosi being the next Speaker of the House. This is officially my largest position.
— I’m pumping some cash into the Republican Senate Seats markets, buying “No’s” on them winning “60+” seats, which is literally ridiculous. You can still get in there at 93 cents for a little taste of free money.
— I’ve cut my position on Ted Cruz surviving this election by 2/3. There are similar odds in easier races (ND, MN, TN) so there is no good reason to continue to expose yourself to the Beto blitz.
— I’ve picked-up a big Hail Mary: Richard Ojeda to win WV-03. Most alpha candidate in this election, so I’ll throw a few bucks on him to win in a MAJOR upset.
BAGS I AM HOLDING
— I’m still holding Amy McGrath beating Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY). I don’t think this is actually going to happen, but I get sprung on controversial takes, so why not ride it out?
— Remember that part about me holding too many R Senate wins? I also have a small position on Gov. Rick Scott beating Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida. This is looking like an incredibly bone-headed trade; but in general, I lose more money switching lanes than I do betting like an idiot, plus I got in at a good price. I’ve dumped 1/2 of my position and probably should get rid of it all, but still holding some. If you are holding Rick Scott bags, I would seriously think about selling them.
RACES THAT MAKE ME WET THE BED:
— I am still betting against Rep. Mimi Walters (R-CA), Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL), and am long Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) and Martha McSally. All of these races are basically a spin of the roulette wheel. Once again, this is why 90-percent of my diet is benzos and Robitussin right now. I’ve trimmed my position by 1/3 in all of them except for Roskam, who I think is about to get hosed.
GOP Senate Seats After Midterms – NO that GOP has 60+ @ 93 cents.
Who will control the House? – YES on Democrats @ 68 cents
Will Ted Cruz (R-TX) be re-elected? – YES @ 81 cents
Which party will win the AZ Senate race – YES on REPUBLICANS @ 57 cents
Who’ll be Speaker of the House in the Next Congress – YES on Pelosi @ 52 cents (my biggest bet)
Who’ll be Speaker of the House in the Next Congress – YES on Lujon @ 2 cents (hedge)
Who’ll be Speaker of the House in the Next Congress – YES on Bustos @ 2 cents (hedge)
Will Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) be Re-Elected? – NO @ 17 cents
Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be Re-Elected? – NO @ 64 vents
Which Party Will Win TN Senate Race? – YES on GOP @ 74 cents
Will Jon Tester (D-MT) Be Re-Elected? – YES @ 66 cents.
Will Bill Nelson (D-FL) Be Re-Elected? – NO @ 51 cents. (ooof)
Will Tina Smith (D-MN) Be Re-Elected? – YES @ 83 cents
Which Party Will Win WV-03? YES on Democrats @ 34 cents
Which Party Will Win VA-02? YES on Republicans @ 68 cents.
Will Rod Blum (R-IA) Be Re-Elected? No @ 83 cents.
Which Party Will Win KY-06? YES on Democrats @ 45 cents.
Which Party Will Win CA-45? YES on Democrats @ 62 cents.
Which Party Will Win IL-12? YES on Republicans @ 63 cents
Will Mimi Walters (R-CA) Win Re-Election? NO @ 72 cents
Will Peter Roskam (R-IL) Be Re-Elected? NO @ 67 cents.
Will Pete Sessions (R-TX) Be Re-Elected? YES @ 62 cents.
^^^So 2018 right now.