You might remember my stalker, Zoltar-the-All-Knowing, a savage lawyer in Florida whose PredictIt picks payout like a slot machine. Well, I sat down with Zoltar this week to get his take on some of the markets surrounding Special Prosecutor Bob Mueller’s Russia probe and it is already minting cash. Good thing I’ve got this blog to share the bounty.
To catch you up, one of the biggest yo-yos in the political gambling space these days is the question of whether or not President Trump is going to provide sworn testimony to Special Counsel Robert Mueller by the end of the year. This marketplace has had the kind of volatility I usually only expect from Roseanne’s Twitter feed after she’s eaten a whole bottle of Ambien, or Dennis Rodman every time he goes on the news to pump Potcoin.
The price action on the “Will Trump Testify?” market has been monstrous and I’ve been buying dips as low as the 20s and selling pumps as high as the 60s for days. Seeing as I know almost nothing about legal processes, I attribute my success to a few things:
(1) People are morons, have no clue what they are doing, and are watching this market pump, getting some major FOMO, buying the top, and then selling short to me when these bull runs collapse;
(2) MAGA Freaks and Froth-At-the-Mouth Resisters are putting their money where their political sex fantasies are. When market movements signal that Trump is getting closer to impeaching himself, Resisters fantasy-buy. And when that cycle caves, MAGA Freaks get back on the Trump Train and load up on shorts. Basically, this is a perpetual motion device of partisan idiocy.
(3) People are not actually reading the rules of the marketplace or considering the underlying legal questions.
That’s where Zoltar comes in. On this week’s forthcoming podcast, he tells me that among lawyers, “Everyone accepts the fact that written answers are going to delivered [to Special Prosecutor Bob Mueller]… But now the debate is, ‘is it going to be under oath?'”
Spoiler alert: of course Trump’s testimony will be under oath, or else Mueller would just read Trump’s Twitter feed and call it a day.
Zoltar continued, “If you look at Newsweek, Giuliani [Trump’s attorney] did an interview… He said, ‘you gotta be careful, they’re gonna try and trap you, or else you’ll get a perjury charge.’ He’s saying, indirectly, that it is under oath.”
Translation: Why would anyone be worried about a perjury charge if they weren’t giving sworn testimony? This is a major “duh!” moment and it matches perfectly with one of President Trump’s recent rants about how he is answering Mueller’s questions “very easily” despite the fact that they’re designed to “trick him up” to get him to “perjure himself.”
As Zoltar says, “To me, that’s a pretty good sign that it’s under oath.”
Buy anything under 80. We’re so sure that this is going to hit that Zoltar has given me permission to file it under The Carolina Reaper Challenge, where both he and I will eat the spiciest object known to mankind on camera if you do not make money in this marketplace.
Best case scenario, you get paid. Worst case scenario, as Zoltar said, “You’ll get to watch my face melt eating one of these.”