First, let me make an important announcement: I recently proved that I was a genius byÂ predicting that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would un-invite President Donald Trump from giving the State of the Union, due to the fact that she doesn’t want him grandstanding during a government shutdown and/or making nasty faces at her for wearing this scarf:
Since then, PredictIt has launched a new market to capitalize on the question we’ve been obsessed withÂ for a while: will there or won’t there be a State of the Union in 2019?
I think this is a fun one, but one my genius readers chirped at me with an extremely hot take that I want to explore.
FROM: Nate in Louisville
“Spicy bet line here: Trump delivers State of the Union on Twitter. What are the odds?”
First of all, Nate, I love the way you think. And you’re not alone. One of PredictIt’s heavies is pitching a similar idea right now and I am shaking like a leaf on a tree I’m so excited about the possibilities.
Nate and Domer are basically asking the same thing, which is whether Trump will give a speech at some place other than the House Chamber, or if he will literally mail it in to Congress. I know that many of you think that I am a psychic, but I need to say once again that I can’t see the future. That said, I would probably be a world-class scientist or detective if I ever tried, because I absolutely crush it when it comes to using FACTS that I know to acquire KNOWLEDGE that I don’t. So let’s go
FACT: The most Donald Trump thing ever was this doctored WWE video he released of himself body slamming a guy with “CNN” photoshopped onto his face.
This video is proof that Donald Trump believes in governing like a pro wrestler. He is basically a WWE Commander-in-Chief.
Trump persuades voters the way that Steve Austin and John Cena win a crowd. He lets them get drunk on Kool Aid while he runs his mouth about how awful his opponent is. In the meantime, the crowd turns into a bunch of savages anticipating a violent confrontation. Then, when people can hardly contain themselves and are hurling beer and insults at each other for the dumbest reasons imaginable, he body slams opponents like “Little Marco” Rubio, “Crooked Hilary” Clinton, or “Cryin’ Chuck” Schumer in the middle of the public arena. When it’s done, he judges the results by the volume of applause inside the stadium, and not by the response of horrified fans watching in their living rooms in the suburbs.
So that’s settled.
FACT: DONALD TRUMP IS A PRO-WRESTLER
QUESTION: WHAT KIND OF WRESTLER IS TRUMP?
This is where the rubber meets the road, and let me tell you, it’s a real labyrinth of pain. In WWE terms, the question is whether Trump is a “Face” or a “Heel.” This is an enormous character distinction, and it is literally impossible for me to exaggerate how big the implications are for the State of the Union market.
In wrestling, a Face is a hero. A star. That’s Hulk Hogan, The Rock, or John Cena. They wear bright colors. The audience cheers for the Face.
A Heel is the opposite. They’re the bad boys. They’re Triple-H, nWo, Rody Piper, or Vince McMahon. They’re fueled by the audience’s hate. They wear dark colors and sell out venues just because people want to see them lose.
HYPOTHESIS: TRUMP IS A FACE.
In books and movies, heroes are people who pursue their goals relentlessly, even when the odds are stacked against them. This definitely sounds like Donald Trump, given that he is insisting on juicing border wall funding from $1.6 billion to $5 billion, even as Congress answers back, “No, no, no.” I guarantee you that most literature scholars would agree that Trump’s tireless determination to keep Guatemalans and Hondurans out of the country, despite the massive forces of resistance against him, is textbook hero behavior– so let’s keep going.
If Trump is a face, this is what he’ll do for the State of the Union: He’ll take it on the road campaign-style, and give it at a rally on the Border or in front of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s gated home. And if he does that,Â theÂ State of the Union market will resolve as “NO,” because a road rally does not equal a Joint Session of Congress.
In fact, let me be bold here: if Trump gives the State of the Union on the road in 2019, it will be the last time he even considers giving it to a Joint Session of Congress. Every Trump State of the Union will be a rally from now on.
You heard it here first.
HYPOTHESIS: TRUMP IS A HEEL.
This is an interesting idea and it has at least as much substance to it as Beto O’Rourke’s post-election rebound beard.
That’s because if you are a red-blooded American like me who drinks ice beer and refuses to buy beef jerky with Spanish words on it, then you are already thinking about one of the mostÂ astonishing moments in the history of athletic competition: the 1996 WCW Bash at the Beach, an event in history that is shockingly similar to Donald Trump’s “heel turn” at the 2017 White House Correspondents Dinner. This comparison matters bigly for projecting whether Trump will fold like lily on the State of the Union.
At the Bash at the Beach,Â superstar Hulk Hogan went from the sport’s #1 face to its most reviled heel when he united with Scott Hall and Kevin Nash to form the New World Order (nWo), a cadre of white, disenfranchised outsiders bent on taking down the corrupt, self-dealing wrestling establishment.Â As beer cans rained down on the turn-coat Hogan, he scolded this critics by saying, “You fans can stick it… if it wasn’t for Hulk Hogan, you people wouldn’t be here.”
Fast forward to 2017, when Trump turned heel on the White House Correspondents Dinner– which, as a gathering of the D.C. press corps, was guaranteed to be more hostile to him than a throat infection. He basically said the exact same thing:
So if Trump is a heel, he’ll do this: He’ll declare the whole State of the Union ritual pointless and boring. He’ll rage about how Nancy Pelosi is denying Americans something they like (him) because Democrats can’t share their toys.Â Then, he’ll have his staff type-up a statement to submit to Congress in writing. And when that’s done, Trump will put his feet up in the White House Residence, crank-up the volume on Fox News, and have the Secret Service send over some Russian hookers who might get to pee on him if they’re lucky.
Heroes are active. They pursue goals and climb hurdles. Villains — the heels — are trolls. They just throw banana peals in the path of their enemies.
I am not expecting a heel turn over the State of the Union. Trump has a lot to gain by raging in front of a bunch of cameras at the Border. The potential for a massive, nationally-televised rally would also give his ego a huge boner, which I would never discount.
If there is still a government shutdown on or around January 29, this market resolves as “NO”. Stay tuned on advancements from Capitol Hill though. I guess I owe you a post on that too (D‘oh!).
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