Gather all ye rosebuds, because we’ve got some new markets live on PredictIt today. Here are some gut reactions to the newest free money giveaways/the newest moneypits for your political gambling addiction.
Where will Trump and Kim meet for a second summit by March 31?
The White House has already announced that a February Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam is a go. You can buy that in the 80s. So really, this market is just a bet on whether or not you believe what Trump is saying, which can be some shaky ground to stand on.
My opinion: Trump loves to use North Korea as a distraction from whatever scandal he is currently in the middle of, so you know he’s not going to blow-off this meeting. Beware of scheduling and d*ck measuring though– across languages, cultures, and continents these two forces of diplomacy are always liable to disrupt events like these.
Priced in the 80s, I feel like this market is a little rich. In the 70s, I’m interested.
How many Trump tweets will mention “shutdown” from noon on January 22 to noon on January 29th?
Traders are favoring the highest bracket in this market (9+), which makes sense. If the Senate stays on the path that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has put it on (it will), President Trump will have two shutdown-ending packages to tweet about before the week is over, as well two opportunities to boost them during their cloture vote and final consideration.
At a minimum, this market should resolve with more shutdown tweets than we saw last week from Trump (6), when the only stationary target he had to shoot at was Clemson’s hamburgled dinner menu at the White House.
RATING: I like this market as much as I like a Predator sequel. Yes, I’m curious, but I’m probably not putting my own money up for a ticket to the dance.
What will Trump’s 538 job approval index be for January 29th?
The answers is… follow another blog for the answer.