There are two types of people who read this blog: absolute psychos, and everyone else. Everyone else thinks that this government shutdown is going to go on forever. But the absolute psychos think we’re in triple overtime and that Nancy Pelosi is about to throw a dart into the endzone for a game-winning score.
This ties in with PredictIt’s Will There be a State of the Union on Jan 29? market, which is getting really hot since Trump has said he won’t give a Joint Address until the government re-opens. Here’s where that one stands:
I think it’s priced about right. Senate Republicans seem like they are ready to revolt against Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and President Donald Trump, which is an absolutely amazing sign for American Democracy due to the fact that backstabbing and hypocrisy are the juice that makes the Congressional machine run. I’ll come back to that. For now, the variable I am the most worried about is TIME, since the State of the Union market expires on Tuesday and Trump has said he won’t give that speech until the government re-opens.
This next part is important but is more boring than the Winter Olympics: to break a filibuster, it takes 60 votes and 30 hours. Given that GOP Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) voted against McConnell’s “compromise” plan yesterday because he was opposed to any compromise at all, it seems highly likely that whatever deal Trump, McConnell, Pelosi, and Schumer agree to will get someone’s panties twisted-up, and therefore, will draw a filibuster. And in case you forgot what I just said, filibusters take 30 hours to break. So if debate on this bill doesn’t begin until Monday, then we’re really going to be red-lining it to get the government open in time for a Tuesday State of the Union– and a YES resolution for that marketplace.
I personally bought YES on this at 12 cents and have cashed out.
However, I am very confident that we’re driving towards a game-ending shutdown touchdown. Members of both parties have started to publicly question the play calling from their leadership. Trump, in particular, has basically lost his locker room. Reading Mitch McConnell’s quotes defending him is honestly more depressing than seeing a squirrel huddling in the rain.
The poor guy has had enough, and so have his members, like the six GOP senators who crossed lines to support a Democratic spending package yesterday.
Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi has been dangling some border security catnip in front of Donald Trump’s eyes, promising lots of dough for everything but a wall. I fully expect to see a major breakthrough come from this. It will be a Hall of Fame moment of hypocrisy that will be as awesome as when Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) donked his lifelong devotion to Pro-Life policies to get Obamacare through; or when Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) voted for the Bush Tax cuts because California is full of rich people who like money. We will definitely see something amazing like this from Senate Republicans to end the shutdown. I personally am hoping that Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) gives a big smooch to Chuck Schumer for his amazing work on a “21st Century border wall,” even though that wall includes no actual wall anywhere.
This market will be volatile throughout the weekend as weenies bicker over whether or not Trump’s latest tweets signals that he’s primed for a deal or about to tell Congress to take a hike. But if you ask me, Nancy Pelosi is about to score a winning field goal while the President watches from the sidelines.
PS, I sold at 40. I hope you aren’t the psycho who bought my shares– its getting way too hot for that kind of risk.