SOTU Prop Bets: Will Trump Build a Wall of Cash Around a “Caravan?”

I don’t know about you, but I am fired-up for the State of the Union on Tuesday, mostly because I get to find out whether or not Paul Ryan hid a Smirnoff Ice in the Speaker of the House’s desk just to mess with Nancy Pelosi.

pelosi ice

I would totally bet a $1000 that she’d slam that Ice live on TV. Speaker Pelosi is gangster AF and is not scared of anything or anyone, especially Russians. Anyway, here’s the next installment in our series on prop bets for Trump’s State of the Union. If you haven’t already read them, check out our pieces on the “Fake News” and “Mueller” marketplaces to get the full picture.

Will Donald Trump mention A “caravan” in his State of the Union Speech?

caravan market

To start, let’s review the rules of Trump’s Joint Addresses, which we learned from reviewing his last two speeches in our “Fake News” dive.


— Donald Trump doesn’t say a lot of crazy stuff when he goes to the Hill. He generally avoids his trademark conspiracy theories, like “Fake News;” and has generally been praised by the press for being “presidential” in those moments.

— Donald Trump does add a lot of crazy adjectives to the “normal” stuff he talks about.

Ruh-roh! Looks like this market is going to be a toughie. When I put the word “caravan” though this model, I get this error message, which reminds me of how my liver feels the morning after a Cops marathon.

blue screen of death

That’s because the rhetorical concept of an illegal immigrant “caravan” is basically an unstoppable force meeting an immoveable object. Einstein warned us about this and as far as gambling is concerned, the “caravan” market lands squarely in the space where Relatively and Quantum Mechanics fail.


Let’s take a closer look at the facts.

FACT: Immigrant caravans are 100-percent not fake news. They come every few months and when they get to the border, I spend a whole week barfing because of all the dumb stories that people write about them.

FACT: The outrage that President Trump gins-up because of caravans is totally fake news.

FACT: As discussed above, Donald Trump usually leaves his conspiracy theories at home for the State of the Union.

FACT: However, at the State of the Union, one of Trump’s favorite activities is to use non-PC terms to describe real policy problems. For example, he has referred to “radical Islamic terrorism,” which both the Bush and Obama Administrations were too soft to say; and he loves to throw rocks at the PC cops when he refers to “undocumented immigrants” as “illegal immigrants.”

FACT: Donald Trump has spent a lot of time in each of his past two addresses talking about immigration.

CONCLUSION: This is a 50-50 market and is priced correctly. We know that Trump will talk about illegal immigration and we know that he likes to use zingers like “caravan” when he takes on controversial subjects. So I think I’m going to buy a few YES’s here, but not so many that they’ll cancel out my profits on the gimmes if I get boned. So yeah, “caravan” is my long tail. I hope these lotto tickets hit big.

caravan yes

Don’t shoot me if they don’t though.


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