SCOTUS Storm, Part II
Yesterday, I dropped some knowledge on you about Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who’s unfortunate cancer diagnosis is the cause of a lot of action in PredictIt’s three Supreme Court markets and is fueling general intrigue around D.C.. Also in the mix for retirement is Justice Clarence Thomas, who is rumored to be getting squirrely about his future on the High Court. I personally love the conspiracy theory that a hungry pack of Republican wolves is trying to chase him out before 2020.
Today, I’m going to take on the other two markets. But if you monsters haven’t read our RBG post, then you are basically wasting your time. Crawl before you ball, bro.Â Read it and return.
(1) Will Trump’s next Supreme Court pick be a woman?
(2) Who Will be Trump’s next Supreme Court pick?
I have warned you that there may not be a Supreme Court seat opening-up before the 2020 election, which is a major rainy cloud over both of these markets. But adding to that is a serious thunderhead of uncertainty, and that’s the man who makes the wind blow: President Donald Trump.
I am 99-percent sure that Donald Trump gets more jacked-up on doing the opposite of what people expect than anyone ever in history.Â For example, Trump was a big Democratic Party donor until 2011Â andÂ has switched political parties five times since the ’80s.Â But he ran for President as a pro-deficit spending, anti-free trade Republican who thinks that NATO is for losers.Â Talk about nuking peoples’ expectations.
Likewise, when Trump nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, he surprised a lot of people who figured that he’d give the seat to Judge Amul Thapar or Judge Amy Coney Barrett. That’s because the most savage political move would have been to make theÂ group of identity-obsessed zealots whoÂ call themselves “Senate Democrats” pick between confirming a conservative justice, or blocking a woman or person of color from the High Court. We all know how that storm ended though– with a big tornado ripping right through the livingrooms of Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford. Talk about a disaster.
And, let’s be real. The maniacs who think that Trump would for sure nominate a woman don’t know where the wind is coming from. That’s because we have basically entered an era where a council of woke priests at Google and in the comments section of Kylie Jenner’s Instagram tell us what the correct way to be PC is. Honestly, if I were Pope Francis, I would go to the nearest Sweetgreen and give an enormous chest bump to the first guy with a man bun I saw, because the Woke Church is the only religious institution as good at torturing people in public and inserting itself into political debates as the Catholic Church was at its Medieval prime.Â Suffice to say,Â depending on whether Ginsburg (a woman) or Thomas (a person of color) leaves the court first will matter bigly with regard to what the “right” choice for Trump is. So for those of you betting the PC line, this puts you right back into the Amul Thapar or Amy Coney Barret question of before.
So will Trump nominate a woman? Will he pick Amy Comey Barrett? Will he get another Supreme Court pick at all? Animals, we are piling uncertainty on top of uncertainty and the decision maker at the end of the line is Donald Trump. The more I think about it, the more I realize that I am just not interested at all. Both of these markets look like a storm front crashing across the prairie on a hot summer night, which is my way of saying that they could be packing a monster tornado that will rip my wallet right out of my pants.
Yep. That’s a strong pass from me.