Let’s Play Pin the Tail on the City Where the Dem Donkeys Will Convene for the DNC

I am fired-up to bet on where the Democratic National Convention will be held in 2020. To me, this is just an amazing opportunity to make easy money, because the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has already narrowed the list down to three locations. I am not a math whiz but I am pretty sure this means that if you bet on two of them, you automatically have a 66.6 percent chance of winning. This is a powerful fact that should escape no one.

Convetion market basic

Anyway, the DNC has picked Milwaukee, Miami, and Houston as finalists. Everyone on earth basically thinks that Milwaukee is going to win, including PredictIt traders, who are giving it a 72 percent chance of scoring the big W. This makes sense because 99% of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign strategy was to brag about her “Blue Wall” in Great Lakes states like Wisconsin while she raised money in New York and California and generally avoided campaigning anywhere competitive. Turns out this was a bad idea, because Trump beat her by a few thousand votes in Wisconsin and Michigan, and that is really the only reason why he has surpassed Monica Lewinsky’s blue dress as the most famous stain in White House history.

hillary and dws

So yeah, I totally believe that Milwaukee is going to be home to the Democratic National Convention. I assume that when DNC Chairman Tom Perez was hired in 2017, the Democratic deep state told him that he only had one job: don’t lose Wisconsin again. And even if he didn’t get that message, I also know that most political operatives think the same way that bad NFL coaches do: they don’t call the play that has the highest chance of succeeding, they call the play that has the lowest chance of getting them in trouble on Monday. For Democrats, that means dialing-up Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the convention so that they don’t lose another home game that costs them the Super Bowl, like this old humdinger here:

Or this one here:

swing states 2016

That said, I will never count Miami out of the political convention game. Miami hosted the 1968 Republican National Convention as well as conventions for both parties in 1972. What most of you animals forget is that this was because in those times, one of the most popular recreational activities for Americans of all ages was to participate in a race riot and/or massive public demonstration, which the police could easily protect Miami Beach from due to the fact that it is only accessible by bridges.

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Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention

Given that we are once again living in an era where Americans find as much joy in civil disobedience as a good old game of catch, I think that security concerns are worth thinking about. Also, I think the fact that Miami Beach is way cooler than Milwaukee is also important; as is the fact that the state of Florida is a swing state that has picked the winner of 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections. Don’t sleep on that.

Lastly, there is Houston, Texas. Do I really need to say anything about this? Democrats have some big boners about maybe winning Texas in the future, but the future is a long way away. Beto O’Rouke couldn’t win this state with unlimited money, a Democratic wave behind him, an Ariana Grande-sized social media following, and the most disliked opponent in the U.S. Senate (Ted Cruz) opposing him. Not gonna happen in 2020 either. Like I said, most political operatives think like hacky NFL coaches: they will just dial-up the safe play. And for DNC Chairman Tom Perez, the safe play is to hold this convention in either the state that his party must win (Wisconsin) or the state that they’d like to win (Florida). There is no time for Democrats to fantasize about the Prom Queen (Texas) when she is way out of their league right now.

Now I will do something extremely rare: admit mortality. I tested my theory on a veteran of the Gore 2000 campaign who told me I was being a bonehead. This big D said that, “It’s 75 percent logistics, 25 percent politics,” when it comes to making city selections, which is a big boost for Houston due to the fact that it is the fourth largest city in the country. But the only time since the last ice age that one of these conventions wasn’t held somewhere that was either a creampuff rally for the base or an obvious attempt at swing state seduction was in 2004 and 2008, when the GOP picked New York City and St. Paul, MN. The Democratic Party has never taken a risk like that in the modern era. I guess liberals just prefer a nice safety net, what can I say.

But if I am wrong, this is why it will be: since the end of World War II, the Democratic Party has consistently chosen large union towns controlled by political machines like Chicago (4 times), New York (3), and Philadelphia (2). Houston is a city full of bulging-muscle oil roustabouts, and if you drink a bottle of Robitussin and start reading its demographic profile, you could argue that its core meets the Chicago-Philadelphia-New York standard. However, I generally don’t like Robo-tripping unless there is a Pixar movie on TV, so I will dispel this theory quickly: in the last 20 years, the Democratic Party has targeted swing states in cities like Denver (2008), Charlotte in (2012), and Los Angeles in 2000 (California was NOT a reliable Democratic state then). They’ve never rolled the dice politically on a place like Houston.

Here’s how I am betting:

With Milwaukee trading in the low 70s and Miami at 9 cents, I’ll tell you what I’m doing: I’m buying both. Actually, I already bought both (53 and 10 cents, respectively). And I’m going to knuckle up big time here and add this: I’m short Houston. So here’s what I’m into:

Convetion Markets ALl

Milwaukee – Long @ 53 cents, bought in again @ 72 cents.

Miami – Long @ 10 cents.

Houston – Short @ 70 cents.

This is mathematically a terrible bet, since my risk totals $1.52 cents per share. But there is a zero percent chance that Houston gets this convention, so buying anything under 99 cents for that is a steal.

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When I win big, I am definitely going to spend my dough on a case of Miller Lite and a Pitbull album. I just feel bad for all the sallies who are long Houston.

KEENDAWG.

 

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