I often claim to be a political gambling genius but honestly, I think that zoo animals could make money in the markets that PredictIt has open for the Senate’s upcoming vote on the Joint Resolution of Disapproval for Trump’s border wall emergency.
To get you caught up, read our first article on this subject, which outlines some basic principles and conflicts between sides. I think the most important point to make is that this vote is basically identical to the savage fight for survival that animals face in the African wilds. On one side is the lion, President Donald Trump, who has made it clear that he will fight to the death over all things immigration and is in no mood to be f*cked with. On the other side is a bunch of taunting baboons, which are Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats. They are hurling rocks, like this Joint Resolution of Disapproval, at Trump and feeling like they are much higher on the food chain ever since they discovered fire in the last election. Trapped between these two sides is the Senate GOP, which is a band of yapping hyenas that Trump has graciously allowed to feast on the leftovers from his 2016 kill– but whose members he has also periodically devoured when they challenge his supremacy. Which gets us to this vote.
Basically, Senate Republicans have to make a devastating choice about this Democrat-backed Joint Resolution of Disapproval: to protect their Constitutionally-delegated lands from the lion’s encroachment by voting YES with the Dems; or to support Trump’s declaration, fork-over Congress’s power of the purse, and make themselves into the lion’s slaves in order to avoid provoking his anger.
Now, on to stage two of these gambling markets: though the Senate has scheduled a vote on the Joint Resolution of Disapproval, the Fake News Media has been reporting that Republicans are trying to cut a deal with Trump to have him withdraw his Presidential Proclamation, which is causing massive volatility throughout PredictIt. Let’s have a look at the rules to understand why.
For the total votes markets:
And for the individual Senator markets:
This means that every single NO bet but one (N49 or fewer) will resolve as a win if this Joint Resolution never gets a vote. This fact has a lot of traders running scared from the savannah. They are dumping easy winners like NO on 49 or fewer votes and YES on Senators Mitt Romney and Cory Gardner voting with the Democrats; and they are pumping-up the prices for obvious losers on the other sides of these trades.
They are also doing this because they think that Senate Republicans will amend the House-passed bill until it is unrecognizable, which invites another deadly predator into the mix: the Rules Cuck Panther, who will rip everyone’s face off if a heavily-amended bill passes the Senate.
However, all the fear in the market is garbage. Donald Trump is not going to withdraw his proclamation and Senate Republicans aren’t going to amend the measure at hand enough to allow for a rules cuck. Let’s talk about why.
WILL TRUMP WITHDRAW HIS NATIONAL EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION?
If you are betting that Donald Trump is going to voluntarily quit on his signature issue — immigration — so that Senate Republicans won’t have to take a hard vote, then you are operating at a lower-IQ than any of our four-legged friends. That is because even lower-order mammals have the brains to recognize basic patterns in nature so that they can avoid being slaughtered. So let’s reconnect with our squirrel brains and figure out what Donald Trump’s pattern on immigration is:
2015: While giving the speech that launches his presidential campaign, Donald Trump says that, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. … They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people,”
Did Donald Trump back down? NOPE. In subsequent interviews, Trump said that, “I am personally offended by the mainstream media’s attempt to distort my comments regarding Mexico and its great people,” and, “Some are good and some are rapists and some are killers. We don’t even know what we’re getting.”
2017: Two weeks into his presidency, Donald Trump releases Executive Order 13769, better known as, “The Muslim Travel Ban.” Liberals lose their collective minds, flood airports, and write millions of tweets committing to hosting Syrian refugees… then get bored with the whole idea when they remember that Game of Thrones comes on at 10:00. Meanwhile, brandname Republicans like Sen. John McCain, Marco Rubio, Bob Corker, Lamar Alexander, Cory Gardner, and Rob Portman are reportedly left stewing. Courts strike down Trump’s order shortly after.
Did Donald Trump back down? NOPE. When it became obvious that Trump’s EO was going to die in court, he issued a new and improved travel ban (EO 13780) that has stood the test of time.
December 2018: After weeks of savage negotiating with Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, Trump finally concedes that Congress is not going to give him the extra $5 billion dollars he wants to build the wall. The President grudgingly agrees to sign the budget without wall funds until — at the 11th hour — Trump changes his mind and shuts down the government for 35 days to get his way. Except he doesn’t. He fails.
Did Donald Trump back down? NOPE. Trump ended the government shutdown by signing a budget without increased wall money. But he quickly issued a Presidential Proclamation to redirect money from federal agencies towards wall funding. Which gets us to where we are now.
So as far as I can tell, Donald Trump has never once backed down on immigration policy. Zero times. 0-for-life. So why would he back down now?
WILL A RULES CUCK PANTHER DESTROY TRADERS AFTER THE SENATE AMENDS THE RESOLUTION OF DISAPPROVAL BEYOND RECOGNITION?
Once again, if you are asking this question, you probably already have your face inside of the lion’s jaws. Fortunately, you found Star Spangled Gamblers, and we can band together to make Natural Selection our bitch and profit off of political gambling.
Yes, Senate Republicans have been chatty about asking the Parliamentarian if they can amend a Joint Resolution of Disapproval, but this is a total a publicity stunt. Every Senator knows that you can’t just modify Constitutional law on the fly to avoid taking a hard vote. Just read a bill to amend the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which is the mechanism behind this whole thing. The REINS Act, for example, is 24 pages long and modifies seven titles of the CRA. Do you really think the Senate can single-handedly manufacture that kind of procedural change because a few Republican honchos are nervous? I’ll do you one better: do you really think that anyone in the Senate doesn’t already know the answer to that question? Of course not.
The only reason why Mitch McConnell has been banging on the Parliamentarian’s door is to give his dawgs cover. These GOP hyenas are just scouting their den for exits before they pick a fight with the lion standing at the door. And if you don’t believe me, check out this copy that Politico generously donated to SSG about the chance of a floor amendment on this CRA
Nope. No amendment. And no amendment means no Rules Cuck Panther.
I have two very strong opinions. The first one is that I have an enormous chubby for all the boneheaded traders who keep selling me their shares for cheap because they either (1) don’t understand Congress; or (2) don’t have the iron will to survive on the PredictIt prairie. The second one is that I am deeply fearful for the future of democracy and am worried that we are within a generation of dolphins forming a superior civilization due to the fact that people are this dumb. Like I’ve always said, SSG is a project to save humanity, so hopefully we can turn this ship around together.
And I’m wrong and Trump backs-down, there is an easy insurance policy to buy. All you have to do is go bargain shopping in these three markets.
If you’re patient, you can get some NOs i the 15-20 cent range to insure yourself. If the Rules Cuck Panther comes out of the jungle to rip your face off, these shares will redeem at full value and cover your losses.
Thank me later.
Oh and here is what I’m holding:
YES ON: Romney, Toomey, Gardner, and Lee.
NO ON: Alexander (insurance)