One of the things we believe in 100 percent at Star Spangled Gamblers is respecting our elders. Nate Silver is one such elder due to the fact that he basically nailed the 2008 and 2012 elections down to the vote but got iced in the last two. That said, being over the hill has never stopped me from getting a big nerd boner for a genius like Nasty Nate. I personally love lots of things whose best days are behind them, like Game of Thrones, saturated fats, and vaccinations, so it still means a lot to me when I see that Silver is finally getting on my level about Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-MA) presidential campaign. Check this out:
This is hard to articulate but I almost feel like there are 2 Warrens: on the one hand, a major brand that flopped upon launch, partly because of the DNA story; on the other hand, a scrappy underdog who is slowly gaining momentum with high-information voters. https://t.co/FqTz6WraCb
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 10, 2019
It looks like Silver is finally coming around to agreeing with the alpha move I’ve been pulling lately. I hinted at it in my last post, but I’ve been buying cheap shares of Elizabeth Warren for President in the 2020 Dem Nominee market.
Obviously this means that I agree with the “scrappy underdog” story that Nate Silver is pedaling as well as the “*very* good on the stump” tweet that the beta underneath him his is pushing. The reason for this is two-fold: (1) valuations of all the Democratic nominee markets on PredictIt make absolutely no sense and are wildly volatile, presenting great opportunities to buy if you’re patient; and (2) Elizabeth Warren is a folk hero when it comes to retail politics. She is better at selling Americans in their living rooms than an NCAA basketball coach with a suitcase full of cash. Just look at this monster tape of her from the 2012 campaign.
This speech is an absolute banger. I honestly don’t think that any group of white people in Massachusetts has ever been this fired-up without a witch and/or New York Yankees jersey to burn. But don’t take it from me. Just listen to how President Obama jocked Warren’s stump speech when it was time for him to get re-elected later that year.
That’s right, imitation is praise.
Anyway, when you have a candidate like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who is so good at selling voters face-to-face that the leader of the free world steals her pitch, then you are clearly talking about a force to be reckoned with. That’s why I think that Elizabeth Warren is going to over-perform in one of the early primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and/or South Carolina, where voters love to stroke themselves by saying stuff like, “I don’t vote for Presidents that I’ve never met.” Well, you try meeting Elizabeth Warren and not voting for her. Apparently that is almost as difficult as seeing me in my jean jacket and not immediately asking me if I can squat 350 or if I am related to the guy who invented beef jerky. Basically, it is impossible.
I am not going to tell you that Elizabeth Warren is going to be the Democratic nominee for President. It would be bananas to make that declaration now. But if you can buy YES shares on her at 4-6 cents — and you can — I am pretty confident that she will surprise people early on and you will be able to flip those shares at 2-5X. We’ll see how it goes. I’m just glad that Nate Silver agrees. I guess I’ll see you in Iowa, monsters.