I am Getting WRECKED by the the Mayor Pete Optimism Bubble
Yesterday, I was checking the traps aka my bets on PredictIt and I noticed that my position in the “What Rank will Beto O’Rourke be in the RCP Average on April 31” marketplace has been getting absolutely hammered. If you recall, about a month ago I wrote that I thought this bet was a great opportunity to pick up some free cash because it was very unlikely that anything would happen this early in the campaign for Beto to fall below 4th place. But what I did not know at the time was that Mayor Pete Buttigieg was building a political rocketship in his garage, which he launched a few weeks ago, and whose blast fumes have absolutely smoked his competition for the young, optimistic, and under-qualified vote — Beto O’Rourke.
This event has also shown-up in PredictIt’s gambling markets, which are giving Mayor Pete absurd chances of winning the Democratic nomination as well as some early primaries.
More importantly, in the short term, it’s causing my position in the “What RCP Rank for Beto” market to look like an absolute dumpster fire, with my cash burning right next to all the Dunkin Donuts cups, cardboard boxes, and crack vials inside.
Keendawg’s Positions in “What Place Will Beto O’Rourke be in in the RCP Standings on April 31”:
However, there are a few reasons why I am not selling. The first one is very personal: I am an absolute alpha and I do not retreat. This is because I am extremely handy with a Buck Knife and regularly eat my steak without a fork (which is alpha AF) and the other is that I tend to lose more money by switching positions or selling them early than I do by picking the wrong horse (why I do not retreat).
The second reason why I am not dumping my Beto shares is that I am 99 percent sure that American voters are getting totally fooled right now. This is because there is a massive distortion in the 2020 polls that I am referring to as an “optimism bubble.” It is a truly shocking turn in the race that I did not foresee and because of it, I have been shotgunning Red Bulls and binge watching the Game of Thrones Red Wedding in order to keep my anxiety levels high enough for the Trump Era. However, if you look at the polls, there is no denying that voters are rewarding candidates who are optimistic and/or have actual ideas. This fact has my political compass spinning like a 17-year old rolling on MDMA at a Chainsmoker’s concert.
So I am basically thinking that this “What Place Will Beto be in on April 31” bet is part of something bigger. Boneheads want to make this bet into a race between O’Rourke and Buttigieg for 4th and 5th place positions, but it is also overlapping with other movements. For example, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who is probably the candidate with the most ideas, has been stealthily stalking the top of the DNC totem poll like an Indian War party, and is up to about 7 percent support after being declared DOA due to her DNA. And Sen. Bernie Sanders (Communist-VT) who, love him or hate him, brings something new to the table, has closed the gap on Joe Biden to within single digits.
This is happening at the same time as alpha dog Sen. Kamala Harris’s polling numbers slide downwards from her campaign’s launch. I like to think of Sen. Harris as the Regina George of the Woke Democratic Mean Girls. She is queen bee due to the fact that she can deliver California and she can raise $400,000 in a day by Tweeting videos like this one, where she says that everyone who disagrees with Woke Democrats is a bad person.
The phrase ‘identity politics’ is often used to either marginalize the topic of discussion or to shut people up. Not anymore. Where America stands on these issues is about America’s identity. pic.twitter.com/Ccu5s2wPhf
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) April 19, 2019
But Sen. “Regina George” Harris has been off the national news lately while she focuses on Iowa and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, front runner Joe Biden has been keeping a low profile in order to duck some MeToo bullets and prep for his campaign launch.
I personally think that the absence of pros like Biden and Harris from the news cycle has opened a window for newcomers like Buttigieg to experiment with some risky campaign strategies, like being thoughtful, publicly optimistic, and saying things to voters that they haven’t rehearsed 57 times and tested with focus groups in six metropolitan areas. But this window will definitely shut once the Kamala Harris and Joe Biden death machines kick into gear. I fully expect to see a more traditional message like the old, “If you disagree with me, you are a deplorable” take hold with voters at that time, which will cause the optimism bubble to contract.
What does all of this mean in the short term? I think it means that this Beto market is a complete and total disaster. I would never tell you to get into it at this point. I basically feel like a juggler at the political circus who is trying to keep three knives in the air — Beto’s fall, Mayor Pete’s rise, and Kamala’s stagnation — while riding a dumb red, white, and blue unicycle of public opinion on the way to see the Ring Leader. The Ring Leader is, of course, the RCP polling average, which is famous for being more inconsistent than Johnny Manziel’s AA attendance, so really this just keeps getting worse. One good or bad poll for any of these candidates is the difference between a 3rd place and a 5th place finish. That also means that one good or bad poll from any of these candidates is the difference between me being a rich genius or a moron who got cucked publicly. It’s absolutely bananas.
So I’m holding my position, which is totally alpha. But I’m also opening a hedge, which is completely beta. I’m betting that Mayor Pete finishes fourth in this market.
Maybe I’ll squeeze out a profit despite what the haters say. I’ve done that before. Or maybe’ll get absolutely destroyed, like the last time I dug my heels in.
Go easy on me, gambling gods.
KEENDAWG.
Betting NO on Pete as 3rd or higher is definitely a solid pay at the prices I’ve been seeing. I don’t see more than a 10% of this happening by April 31. He could be 4nd, 5th, or even 6th.