I am Eyeing These C+ POTUS Candidates for an A+ Alpha Trade. (1/2)

Greetings, animals. You are probably wondering where the old Keendawg has been this past week. There are a few answers to this question. The first one is — smashing beers at the Kentucky Derby, which is where young children from the Bluegrass State such as myself learned their basic arithmetic skills. I honestly believe that most 2nd graders in Kentucky aka “the Land of Milk and Honey” can calculate the cost and payout of any trifecta while blindfolded and hanging upside down. That’s because there are more 9-year olds holding gambling tickets and smoking cigarettes at Churchill Downs than there are carrying AK-47s in the Congo. The bad part about this is that there are remarkably few carcinogens in the Bluegrass’s water supply and given that I now live in Los Angeles, my digestive track was not ready for fluids that did not have significant amounts of lead, mercury, or MDMA dissolved in them. That is the long way of saying that I got seriously ill and lost a whole week of handicapping the race that really matters — the 2020 Democratic Primary. Sorry to leave you in the dark.

Anyway, I have been getting caught-up on the ponies currently running in the Dem Derby as well as shaking off the grievous PTSD that YouTube Star Beto O’Rourke gave me last month when he got creamed in the polls and cost me a boatload of cash. So I am going to man-up, face my fears, and try to learn from my mistakes. That’s right, I’m eyeballing another trade in the polling markets, which is usually where I get busted-up by veteran traders like Pipkin and Rainbow.

debate markets

First, let me say that the DNC rules to qualify for a Democratic debate are absolutely essential. I’ll summarize here: to participate in the June 26 debate, candidates have to poll at 1 percent or higher in three different DNC-approved surveys, and/or have 65,000 individual donors. The deadline for this is 14 days before the actual debate, so we are talking about June 12 as the hard stop for Dems to qualify.

Let’s talk about the candidates.

Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO)

In addition to gambling, my hobbies include watching Cops, ordering from the secret menu at Arby’s, and complaining about gas prices to strangers. These things are proof that I am 100 percent a Real American and understand how people in Real America think. And one of the things that Real Americans are going to think when they hear that Michael Bennet is running for president is that this guy:

michael bennett football

Whose moment of greatness came winning the Super Bowl, wants to be POTUS… And not this guy:

Michael Bennet player card

Whose moment of greatness came when he napalm bombed Ted Cruz on the Senate floor for being even more annoying than usual and for having a terrible beard.

Unfortunately for Sen. Bennet, I am 99 percent sure that the only people who have seen this tape were directed to it by Google’s algorithm after they ordered “PURR-SIST” collars for their cats off of Elizabeth Warren’s website.

warren cat

The point is that no one actually knows Michael Bennet by name. This is a scientific fact. A January survey of his home state found that 31% of Coloradans had never even heard of him– and he’s been in office for 14 years. That is a terrible sign for someone running for national office, but is it necessarily a barrier to receiving 1% support in three early polls? Maybe not.

Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)

Fortunately for Bill de Blasio, the only person that it is easy to confuse him with is actor Kevin James.

 

I think this is awesome because both of these B-listers are absolute masters at doing half-baked work that no one actually likes, but that somehow still gets people lined up around the block to punch their ticket. In politics, Bill de Blasio is usually underwater in the polls (42 percent approval currently). And in entertainment, Kevin’s James’s movies have an average Rotten Tomatoes score of 27 percent. But de Blasio cruised to a second term re-election in 2018 and Kevin James just got a lucrative special with Netflix. Talk about alpha dogs.

Bill de Blasio also has good name ID thanks to five years of being New York City’s first communist mayor. Bernie Sanders and Alex Ocasio-Cortez can talk your ear off about how being a Red is a great way to get your name out there in the press, so I think that’s all gravy. And on a more anecdotal note, it is also a bonehead move to ignore a major public figure from NYC just because his or her stat sheet looks like trash. People wrote Rudy Giuliani off for dead after the 2008 GOP primary, and look at him now. He is basically Trump’s favorite mistress and that is saying a lot.

And then there is Donald Trump himself and Rep. Alex Ocasio-Cortez, who the squares in Washington ignored for being “too extreme” to be winners. Maybe Bill de Blasio is next on that list. The biggest problem with his campaign is this one: it doesn’t exist yet. So betting on him to get an invite to the June 26 debate requires two things: (1) for Bill to get off his butt and run; and (2) for him to make this choice with enough time to qualify for the debate.

So how am I betting on this?

I am going to hit the books for a few hours and get back with you. Then, I’ll come correct with some recommendations and facts. Check back later for part two, animals.

UPDATE — check out Pt 2 here for recommended bets.

KEENDAWG.

 

 

 

 

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