Yesterday, I told you that I was eyeing New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and Colorado Senator Michael Bennet’s possible participation in the first Democratic debate as moneymaking bets. However, before I go any further and tell you my recommendations for these markets, I should mention that I am compromised and 100 percent playing on tilt. That is because I got absolutely pants-ed last month in a polling market and have gone completely ape ever since. I basically hate losing more than I hate Rocky V, and the way I have been coping with this defeat is by sneaking into elementary school gym classes and challenging kids with braces to bench press competitions. After a few dozen victories, I have begun to feel powerful again and am ready to get some alpha.
One more time, here are the markets we’re betting on:
If you haven’t read our first part on these two markets, stop immediately and get caught up. If you are a dumbass and don’t care about your money, continue on and checkout our Patreon page. And for all of you, let me stick-in this reminder for how Democrats can qualify for the first debate. It’s the only thing that matters.
Candidates have to poll at 1 percent or higher in three different DNC-approved surveys, and/or have 65,000 individual donors. The deadline for this is 14 days before the actual debate, so we are talking about June 12 as the hard stop for Dems to qualify.
Let’s ask the two critical questions about both of these candidates.
Will Bill de Blasio and/or Michael Bennet both be presidential candidates in time to qualify?
Sen. Michael Bennet is already in the race.
Mayor Bill de Blasio is basically threatening to do what Brett Favre did in the Oscar-winning classic, There’s Something About Mary, which is show up very late for the party and try to claim the prize for himself.
To that point, New York Magazine reported last week that key de Blasio staffers have moved over to his PAC; while The Daily News reported the week before that Mayor Billy D would announce his campaign as soon as his birthday, on May 8. De Blasio has also been to New Hampshire at least once this spring, but apparently drew a crowd that was only slightly bigger than what an ice cream truck gets in the winter.
Can Bill de Blasio and/or Michael Bennet get 1 percent of the vote by the June 12 deadline?
I crushed a few Diet Mountain Dews and got wet AF in the RCP data vault to see how long it takes for no-name politicians to pick-up 1 percent of the vote. It turns out that it usually happens immediately. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard declared on Jan 11 and by Jan 15, she already had her first 1 percent performance in the bag. Julian Castro announced his campaign on Jan 12, and was polling above 1 percent in Iowa by January 30. Tim Ryan had 1 percent of the national vote a week before he declared his intention to run, and Gov. John Hickenlooper locked-up his third 1-percent showing (including non-DNC sanctioned polls) just three weeks after getting in. This is probably because one out of a hundred people in any group can convince themselves that they’ve actually heard of some total zero who is C-list at best.
Basically, if you think that a candidate can get 1 percent of the vote, then that candidate will get 1 percent quickly. And if they don’t, then you are about to get hosed.
Now it is time for some FACTS:
FACT: Michael Bennet already has his first 1 percent showing in a DNC-sanctioned poll, as well as two showings in non-sanctioned polls. If he follows the same pattern as the other C-listers, he’ll qualify for the debate in time.
FACT: A May 14 Morning Consult survey found Bill de Blasio had the 11th-highest name ID in the Democratic field, which ranks between Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Rep. Tim Ryan. Unfortunately, it also found zero support for him.
FACT: A March Monmouth poll (DNC-approved!!!) has Bill de Blasio on the board with 1 percent support. So Mayor Billy D only has to score two more points to qualify.
Ruh roh!!! But how many DNC-approved polls are left???
Quinnipiac, Monmouth, and CNN have been releasing polls about once a month. ABC News, The Des Moines Register, and the University of New Hampshire, about once a quarter. I feel pretty confident in saying that there are at least four DNC-approved polls left between now and June 12– and as many as ten others that could drop from other publications. That’s more than enough for Bennet. As for de Blasio — some of these polls might already be happening and there is no guaranteeing that his name is on the list of candidates since he is… not a candidate. This makes me extremely nervous about being cucked, so I am starting to lose interest in that trade.
Can either of these candidates get 65,000 individual donors?
This question makes me wish I was Bran Stark so that I could just warg into the brains of likely Democratic donors.
But for now, my best touchstones are Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Rep. Seth Moulton’s (D-MA) campaigns. Gillibrand because she’s known-ish (like de Blasio) and has been on the campaign trail for months, and Moulton because he just got into this race, is well-liked in his home state and Washington, D.C., and is an absolute nobody everywhere else (like Michael Bennet.) Neither of these candidates have reached the 65,000 donor threshold yet, which tells me that it is going to be an uphill climb for de Blasio and Bennet too. But it’s hard to say what will happen when the bubble candidates go absolutely berserk in the last week before the debate deadline and fleece their supporters for the money they need to qualify.
My prediction is that neither Bennet nor de Blasio can scrape together 65,000 individual donors in a month. Mayor Billy D is basically battling the New York Giants for least popular institution in the city, which is a terrible position to be in when you are asking people for money. And honestly, I don’t even know where to begin with Sen. Michael Bennet, whose only viral moment came when he trolled Ted Cruz a few months ago on the Senate floor. If he is going to loosen up some purse strings between now and June, then he needs to detonate a white guilt neutron bomb a la Beto O’Rourke in 2018; or perhaps marry another man and jam-up Mayor Pete in the Not-So-Straight White Man lane.
ALARM!!! ALARM!!! Do you see him coming!!??
There is a Rules Cuck Watch on these markets. This is due to the fact that there are only (ha!) 20 seats available for the June 26 debate; and if Bill de Blasio runs, there will be 22 candidates competing for them. According to FiveThirtyEight, 18 Dems have already qualified, with Michael Bennet, Seth Moulton, and potentially Bill de Blasio, trying to scrape together the stats to nab the last two spots.
The DNC has a complicated tie-breaker process if this situation arises and I will summarize it here: if more than 20 candidates qualify, preference goes to those who hit the polling and fundraising benchmark, and then to those with the highest polling numbers but fewer than 65k donors. The last in line are candidates with 65k donors and <1 percent in the polls. This is important because one candidate, Marianne Williamson, is only qualified by donors and could get cucked massively.
So if this turns into a cage match between Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Seth Moulton, and Mayor Bill de Blasio for the last seat at the table, then I am picking them in this order:
Bennet – Yes @ 65 cents or less
Be Blasio – meh
Moulton – meh
Mayor Billy D is probably the strongest candidate but might be out of time. So I am betting on Michael Bennet being the only bubble candidate that is a lock with de Blasio as a maybe. If you want to bet on de Blasio, then I would recommend just wagering on whether or not he runs at all. And if he does, start thinking about a NO bet on Marianne Williamson because she might get cucked by the DNC on June 26.