Hi monsters, here is some alpha to take you into the weekend.
Who will win the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses?
Harry Reid’s legendary political machine is still setup in Vegas and I think it will go ape for Joe Biden. Only thing is that this is the first contest happening in a state with more than 26 registered voters who aren’t white, plus it is very easy for Kamala Harris’s California base to just invade Nevada and nuke it with pro-Harris propaganda.
I’m not really loving this race right now because it’s inserting diversity dynamics that Iowa and New Hampshire won’t have tested, so I’m not sure what’s going to happen when Bernie and Biden tell people, “Yo no hablo.” Plus the prices of any bets Joe Biden touches are stupid high right now and I will have a chubby for Elizabeth Warren’s campaign right up to the second she gives some boring, well-thought-out answer to a question that just pisses people off Paul Ryan-style and accidentally commits political suicide.
Let’s discuss again in a few months.
Will Mike Gravel be at the Democratic debate on June 26?
Absolutely not. Buy anything under 90. I have only seen one (!) DNC-approved poll even survey his name and it had a massive bagel next to it. Also, there’s this:
we're at 35k with a month to go
— Gravel Institute (@GravelInstitute) May 14, 2019
30k more donors in a month? He is totally smoked.
Will Bill DeBlasio be at the debate on June 26?
I have been on the fence here but the market seems to think that de Blasio will qualify (1 percent polling and/or 65k individual donors). Plus, Pipkin slipped me this note on the boards.
I don’t usually think he is a seditious mongrel like most of the hogs chattering on PI, and I consider him trustworthy. Also, he was right. I’ll pick up a few yes shares in the 75-80 range. I totally buy that de Blasio can qualify in time due to the fact that he is a nationally known brand. It doesn’t matter to me that he is basically known for being shitty and unreliable and turning New York City into a dump. People will know his name and just check yes next to it because they are bored and like half-baked socialists who look like Kevin James.
Will Obama Endorse Biden by Dec 31?
Why would he? The Iowa Caucus is in February, plus everyone knows he has a crush on Kamala Harris. I’m out (for now).