I have let you animals know too much about myself, including this–
And now you expect me to tell you who is going to win the KY Gubernatorial Primary on the Democratic side. This is completely maddening because no one is really polling that race. So basically, I am left to do what I do best, which is just predict things based on stereotypes.
There are three candidates in this race worth discussing. They are:
Andy Beshear – Is the Attorney General and uses his job to sue the unpopular Republican Governor for political gain. Is the son of a popular ex-governor. The dynasty candidate.
Adam Edelen/Gil Holland – a fusion ticket of bigtime Frankfort swamp creature Adam Edelen and an absolute moneybags woke bro from Louisville named Gil Holland, whose wife’s family owns the Kentucky bourbon industry. The globalist/woke candidate.
Rocky Adkins — basically, Kevin Spacey from House of Cards, except if it was about the Kentucky General Assembly and Francis Underwood was from Appalachia. Bro is pro-life, not woke at all, and I am pretty sure that he still goes home and bitches at his wife about the fact that no one speaks English on Telemundo. The old school candidate.
Who is going to win?
I built a highly sophisticated voter turnout model using some basic facts about Kentucky. They are: (1) everyone in politics gangs up on its biggest city, Louisville; (2) Appalachia does not fuck around and is its own place; and (3) Lexington is where the real political power is even though it is basically just a truck stop with some horses outside of it.
My highly sophisticated turnout model assumes 100 percent of registered Democrats will vote; and that based on these and other widely-accepted Kentucky stereotypes, the following candidates will get the following number of votes:
Beshear – 707965.94
Adkins – 531895.77
Edelen – 435546.6
That I said, I think it is an absolute lunatic move to buy Andy Beshear at 85-90 cents. My amazing turnout model assumes that Beshear will take 2/3 of the votes in Kentucky’s western, central, and northern counties to Adkins’s 1/3. This split could easily be closer to 50/50. Also, it is entirely possible that Adam Edelen carries more votes in Lexington than I am accounting for (that means >20 percent), given that he is a swamp creature and Lexington is the truck stop where all the politicking really happens. So if Edelen can pick up a few more votes in Lexington and Adkins can go ninja-style on Beshear and stealth slaughter him in a few of the counties, then all hell might break loose. This feels reasonable given that there are lots of votes up for grabs in the Cincinnati suburbs of Northern Kentucky, where I am pretty sure that even hardcore Democrats collect machine guns and Jesus bobbleheads. Again, Rocky Adkins.
It is for that reason that the only bet on this race I can recommend is a NO on Beshear. It is absolutely bananas to pay 85+ cents for him. It is also bananas to buy YES on Edelen and Adkins individually, given that the price on those contracts combined is 2X what a straight short on Beshear costs.
I do not feel particularly good about this race but you asked, so there you have it. Either don’t bet it at all or pick a longshot. Beshear is definitely the favorite but not an 85/15 favorite, so you are seriously asking to get boned if you park your money there. The market is starting to realize this, so if you want to bet Beshear– be patient and try and get in under 70.
Endorsements: Louisville Courier-Journal