As I have said before, I am a genius. Today PredictIt got woke to the fact that Andy Beshear YES shares in the Kentucky Democratic Gubernatorial were massively over priced in the 80s, which I was kind enough to tell you about on Monday. I have been going absolutely ape buying these NO shares on Beshear just like Ollie the Terminator did for Blue Star Airlines in the classic film Wall Street.
Thanks to this, my pockets have been filling up with gold for 24+ hours. However, in a stunning moment of clarity, I realized that I should actually ignore my natural instinct to be the #1 most alpha person on the planet and silence the Gordon Gekko chirping in my head. Instead of following this free money frolic all the way to the end, I am going to take Lou Manheim from Jackson Steinem & Co.’s advice:
Translation: I got in at 11 cents. And now I’m ditching 50%+ of my stack at 23.
Why? We are talking about an off-cycle primary in a small state where there is no real polling data available. I am honestly more comfortable predicting where the next tornado lands than where this race ends. At least with tornados you can guarantee that they will strike within 3 miles of a Walmart, due to the fact that they are some of the most savage participants in class warfare and are the only natural disaster other than Donald Trump that exclusively targets poor people in trailer parks. This scientific fact eliminates enormous swaths of America from tornado contention, but there is no credible information that eliminates Andy Beshear, Adam Edelen, or Rocky Adkins from KY gubernatorial primary contention.
The right price for this market is probably 60-20-20. We are getting very close to that. I will hold 1/3 of my shares in my back pocket so that I can hit a walk-off grand slam if possible, but I am basically writing to tell you that the price advantage in this market is gone and it is basically just gambling from here on. Good luck out there.