May Report Card & Poll Wars IV
I have been in a state of panic ever since getting creamed by Beto O’Rourke in April’s polling market. Because of this once in a century loss, I have generally been avoiding checking my positions for the last few weeks. However, I was pleasantly surprised to see that SSG went on a savage run during the month of May and that my checkbook, like America, has already forgotten about Beto.
We didn’t pitch a perfect game but the results are more than satisfying, with an average gain of 23 percent per prediction. Almost everything we bet on was either related to who would qualify for the June Democratic debate or who from Trumpworld would testify in Congress (turns out, no one). I should also add that there are a lot of you out there who have shared tips and insights to power our trading book. That’s the point of this project, so keep it coming.
BTW, this is also hopefully our last entry in the Poll Wars section, for those of you still trading the first Dem debate.
KEENDAWG’S PICKS – MAY 2019
(1) Will Sen. Michael Bennet participate in the June debate?
Our bet: YES @ 65 Cents.
Current price: 90 cents.
My action: Unloading for anything over 84. This market is too hot for me. I’ve tasted some alpha and I’m out.
(2) Will Marianne Williamson Participate in the June debate?
Our prediction: YES @ *79 cents.
Current price: 99 cents.
*My action: Market pumped before I could get in. Missed all the alpha. What a beta.
(3) Will Mayor Bill de Blasio participate in the June debate?
Our bet: YES @ 79 cents.
Current price: 94 cents.
My action: CLOSED at 94 cents.
(4) Will Seth Moulton participate in the Dem debate?
Our bet: YES @ 4 cents.
Current price: 3 cents.
My action: Eating it, as pictured above.
(5) Will John Delaney participate in June Dem debate?
Our bet: YES @ 83 cents.
Current price: 94 cents.
My action: Closed at 94 cents.
(6) Who will win the KY Gubernatorial nominee?
Our bet: NO on Andy Beshear @ 11 cents.
Closed at: 24 cents. (Beshear won tho)
(7) Will Mike Gravel be at the Dem Debate?
Our bet: NO @ 91 cents
Current Price: 98 cents.
My action: Holding.
(8) 2020 Dem Nominee?
Our bet: YES on Elizabeth Warren @ 7 cents
Current price: 14 cents.
My action: HOLDING
ZOLTAR’S PICKS:
(9) Will Don McGahn testify by May 31?
Or bet: NO @ 77 cents.
Status: WIN.
(10) Will Bill Barr testify by May 31?
Our bet: NO @ 95 cents.
Status: WIN.
(11) Will Allen Weisselberg testify by May 31?
Our bet: NO @ 92 cents.
Status: WIN.
(12) Will Robert Mueller testify by May 31?
Our bet: NO @ 93 cents.
Status: WIN
(13) Will Don Jr. testify in 2019?
Our bet: NO @ 82 cents.
Current price: 89 cents.
Action: Holding
Well folks, May was good to us. We’ve made a healthy profit in 12 out of 13 markets for an average gain of 23 percent per trade. Let’s hope the harvest continues in June.
| Entry | Exit | % Change | |
| Michael Bennet | 65 | 85 | 30.77% |
| Marianne Williamson | 79 | 99 | 25.32% |
| Bill de Blasio | 79 | 94 | 18.99% |
| Seth Moulton | 4 | 1 | -75.00% |
| John Delaney | 83 | 94 | 13.25% |
| KY Gubernatorial | 11 | 24 | 118.18% |
| Mike Gravel | 91 | 98 | 7.69% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 7 | 14 | 100.00% |
| Don McGahn | 77 | 100 | 29.87% |
| Bill Barr | 95 | 100 | 5.26% |
| Allen Weisselberg | 92 | 100 | 8.70% |
| Bob Mueller | 93 | 100 | 7.53% |
| Don Jr | 82 | 89 | 8.54% |
| AVG Gain | 23.01% |
KEENDAWG & ZOLTAR.
I have never bet on RCP polling averages before, but I could not resist. Biden RCP frontrunner on 8/1/2019? YES I don’t see him blowing a 17 point lead in 53 days.
Who’s Zoltar?