May Report Card & Poll Wars IV

I have been in a state of panic ever since getting creamed by Beto O’Rourke in April’s polling market. Because of this once in a century loss, I have generally been avoiding checking my positions for the last few weeks. However, I was pleasantly surprised to see that SSG went on a savage run during the month of May and that my checkbook, like America, has already forgotten about Beto.

We didn’t pitch a perfect game but the results are more than satisfying, with an average gain of 23 percent per prediction. Almost everything we bet on was either related to who would qualify for the June Democratic debate or who from Trumpworld would testify in Congress (turns out, no one). I should also add that there are a lot of you out there who have shared tips and insights to power our trading book. That’s the point of this project, so keep it coming.

BTW, this is also hopefully our last entry in the Poll Wars section, for those of you still trading the first Dem debate.


(1) Will Sen. Michael Bennet participate in the June debate?

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Our bet: YES @ 65 Cents.

Current price: 90 cents.

My action: Unloading for anything over 84. This market is too hot for me. I’ve tasted some alpha and I’m out.

(2) Will Marianne Williamson Participate in the June debate?

anchorman GIF

Our prediction: YES @ *79 cents.

Current price: 99 cents.

*My action: Market pumped before I could get in. Missed all the alpha. What a beta.

(3) Will Mayor Bill de Blasio participate in the June debate?

seth meyers wtf GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers

Our bet: YES @ 79 cents.

Current price: 94 cents.

My action: CLOSED at 94 cents.

(4) Will Seth Moulton participate in the Dem debate?

kiss my ass a mans butt GIF

Our bet: YES @ 4 cents.

Current price: 3 cents.

My action: Eating it, as pictured above.

(5) Will John Delaney participate in June Dem debate?

Animated GIF

Our bet: YES @ 83 cents.

Current price: 94 cents.

My action: Closed at 94 cents.

(6) Who will win the KY Gubernatorial nominee?

morgan freeman laughing GIF

Our bet: NO on Andy Beshear @ 11 cents.

Closed at: 24 cents. (Beshear won tho)

(7) Will Mike Gravel be at the Dem Debate?

bored lamar jackson GIF by NFL

Our bet: NO @ 91 cents

Current Price: 98 cents.

My action: Holding.

(8) 2020 Dem Nominee?

hey girl love GIF by Snapple

Our bet: YES on Elizabeth Warren @ 7 cents

Current price: 14 cents.

My action: HOLDING


(9) Will Don McGahn testify by May 31?

beavis and butthead money GIF

Or bet: NO @ 77 cents.

Status: WIN.

(10) Will Bill Barr testify by May 31?

i'll take it tv land GIF by YoungerTV

Our bet: NO @ 95 cents.

Status: WIN.

(11) Will Allen Weisselberg testify by May 31?

milwaukee bucks nba GIF by onmilwaukee

Our bet: NO @ 92 cents.

Status: WIN.

(12) Will Robert Mueller testify by May 31?

green bay packers yes GIF by NFL

Our bet: NO @ 93 cents.

Status: WIN

(13) Will Don Jr. testify in 2019?

happy birthday commando GIF

Our bet: NO @ 82 cents.

Current price: 89 cents.

Action: Holding

Well folks, May was good to us. We’ve made a healthy profit in 12 out of 13 markets for an average gain of 23 percent per trade. Let’s hope the harvest continues in June.

Entry Exit % Change
Michael Bennet 65 85 30.77%
Marianne Williamson 79 99 25.32%
Bill de Blasio 79 94 18.99%
Seth Moulton 4 1 -75.00%
John Delaney 83 94 13.25%
KY Gubernatorial 11 24 118.18%
Mike Gravel 91 98 7.69%
Elizabeth Warren 7 14 100.00%
Don McGahn 77 100 29.87%
Bill Barr 95 100 5.26%
Allen Weisselberg 92 100 8.70%
Bob Mueller 93 100 7.53%
Don Jr 82 89 8.54%
AVG Gain 23.01%


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2 thoughts on “May Report Card & Poll Wars IV

  1. I have never bet on RCP polling averages before, but I could not resist. Biden RCP frontrunner on 8/1/2019? YES I don’t see him blowing a 17 point lead in 53 days.

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