Dem Primary Check-In: This Race is About Lions Mating, Not Horses Racing
There are a lot of boneheads in the Fake News Media who are constantly talking about “horse race politics.” However, they are 100 percent missing the point of the Democratic Presidential Primary when they compare it to horses. That is because this campaign is really all about lions.
Let me explain. For those of you who don’t already know, lions are a species with strange mating habits that I will not criticize due to the fact that they are from a foreign country and it is maybe cultural. Anyway, most males in the USA attract a mate by creating an identity on Instagram and Bumble that depicts them on a boat that someone else paid for and/or working out at a gym six years ago. But if you want to mate in the jungle, the only thing that matters is strength. Male lions only get to smash if they establish themselves as the prime physical specimen in the pride, AKA the alpha male. This is a really great gig if you can get it because the alpha male gets to plug whatever lioness he wants, whenever he wants, while all the betas get stuck with his sloppy seconds or get forced to watch porn with the orangutans.
Lion Mating Politics is different from Horse Race Politics. In lion boning, we are talking about one dominant candidate who is laying more pipe than the Local 250, and a field of betas and cubs fighting for his leftovers. In horse racing, we’re talking about aÂ tight contest that anyone could breakout of and win at any time. If you are following the 2020 Democratic Primary, then it is obvious at this stage that we are watching lions competing for the alpha spot and not horses racing for the finish line. And that alpha lion is definitely Joe Biden. Just look at the polling numbers:
This information is especially useful because PredictIt hasÂ a few markets open on how candidates will be looking on Aug 1. My favorite of these is Joe Biden’s.
Here is the path to finding gold in it.
How is the competition for Democratic alpha going?
As I have said, there is no competition right now between 1st and 2nd in the Dem Primary. Biden is up by an average of 15.7 points on RCP, which gives him an extremely thick mane that neither Bernie Sanders’ fangs nor Kamala Harris’s claws can rip through.
But Keendawg, the last time you said an RCP polling market was a lock, your money got napalmed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Why Should we trust you now?
That’s true. In April, I said that it was free money to bet that YouTube star Beto O’Rourke wouldn’t slide below 4th place in the polls. He then lost six percentage points that month and dipped to 6th place, where he is today.
But Joe Biden is different. Once again, this is because he is the alpha male. He could lose double what Beto did and still be in first. And whatever support he does lose, he’ll lose to multiple candidates and not just one wimp lion challenging his status as king. This is because Uncle Joe isn’t a narrow candidate campaigning for something small, like the socialist vote or the woke vote. He attracts people for lots of reasons, like hisÂ “electability,” his name ID, and/or his familiar age and skin color. Since diverse groups of people are pulling for Biden now, it is obvious that when they dessert him, they’ll do it for diverse reasons and to support a diverse range of candidates in his place.
What this tells a genius like me is that if Joe Biden falls out of favor, no one candidate will benefit. His losses will show up as modest gains for Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, etc., as former Biden supporters spread their love between alternative campaigns.
But Isn’t Joe Biden amazing at screwing things up?
You make a good point. Biden has reputation for saying dumb things that get him in trouble. For example, he absolutely boned President Obama in 2012 by telling journalists that he supported gay marriage.
And Biden hasÂ two debates between now and August to cause a similar disaster for the party. I personally think this concern is mostly fake news for the reasons I have stated above. Let me say it another way. Biden could show up to the Dem debate in a banana hammock–
But as long as he doesn’t lose more than about 12 percentage points of his polling support due to “wardrobe malfunction,” he’s going to be fine. Look at this table I made that assumes this scenario: a 12 point loss, with gains evenly distributed across his four closest rivals.
|RCPÂ Average||6/3 – 6/12||31.5||15.8||12.8||7.8||7.3|
|Biden Shits Bed @ Debate||6/26 – 6/27||-12||+3||+3||+3||+3|
|Adjusted RCP Average||19.5||18.8||15.8||10.8||10.3|
Biden still wins.
Aren’t there other ways Biden could blow his lead by August 1?
Absolutely. For example, we could learn something truly terrible about his past, like that the real reason why he blew off Anita Hill’s testimony was because he was double-booked with Hitler. Another way he could get bounced would be if someone cooler got into the race, like Michelle Obama or Oprah, but I am not thinking that either of those things will happen.
What if he dies?
Will Joe Biden be the frontrunner on August 1?
As I have said, this is a fight between lions. And if you want to knock the alpha male off the top of the heap, then improving your stat sheet with fundraising numbers and endorsements won’t get it done. The only way to establish dominance in the animal kingdom is through combat, and the first chance the Democratic candidates have to fight Joe Biden comes in January, during the Iowa Caucuses. Without a real contest to show their strength and fitness as candidates, no one in the Democratic field is going to overtake Joe Biden between now and then, unless this lion steps on a thorn of his own making.
My prediction: Biden will continue to roam the electoral savannah with supremacy, plugging whatever lionesses he chooses and filling a new generation with his seed throughout the summer and into the fall. So I say take the money now and worry about the rest later.
Because we all know what comes next.
3 thoughts on “Dem Primary Check-In: This Race is About Lions Mating, Not Horses Racing”
I bought Biden 1st on 8/1/2019 before I even read this and plan to increase my position in it and Biden in 2nd? NO when I have more cash.
Any opportunity to capitalize on one of the asterisks (Andrew Yang, Hickenlooper, Swalwell, etc.) getting a mini-bounce out of the 1st debate?
Not sure if Yang is still an asterisk (definitely not according to the Dem Nom market) but I think most traders don’t know how to properly capitalize on the debate line up announcement. Only Warren on night 1 means more talking time for the 1%’s. I’m definitely eyeing Beto to get a little bump from his performance on night 1. He could even emerge as that debate “winner” because let’s face it- Warren doesn’t do well in debates.
Yang is definitely in and I like your brain is at. Re: Warren, I would take her first round overall for retail politics but agree that she is suspect playing stadium shows.
We’re thinking about trading debate too — maybe Bennet a good one to watch too. Look for a post to come. You got any more genius behind that?