I don’t know about you, but sometimes it gets hot AF in the political gambling kitchen, where I am just constantly trying to cook-up a feast of cash to serve you animals. That’s why I was extremely happy to hear from those of you who reached out to tell me about the rib-roasts of alpha you’re marinating for next week’s Democratic Debates.
Here’s the summary: with 20 candidates getting airtime on national TV, many of which the public has never seen nor heard of, the June 26-27 debates are a golden opportunity to buy YES shares on bum candidates like Bill de Blasio in hopes of flipping them for 2-10X value if they put on a good show.
Now let’s talk turkey. First of all, trying to front-run the giant boners that the Media will get for some as-yet undiscovered candidates is a great idea. But secondly, it is a very risky one too. Betting that nobodies like Rep. Tulsi Gabbard will pump requires the same attention to detail as Jiro pays to his sushi:
That is because playing longshots is as dangerous as opening restaurants, which can be worse money traps than Carly Fiorina’s 2010 California GOP Senate campaign against Barbara Boxer. So before I start cooking at Keendawg’s Grill, I need to nail two things harder than the FBI nailed Paul Manafort: the cost of my ingredients and the price that my customers are willing to pay. On PredictIt, this means my target entry and exit prices for bum candidates who have no chance of winning, but who might go viral if they spit out the perfect zinger about his/her plan to fight gun violence by having the polar bears displaced by climate change round up all the AR-15s in Alabama. Picking the candidates that will pull this off is going to take a little bit of secret sauce (don’t worry, we’ll go there), but finding the right exit price is Shake ‘n Bake easy. Let’s get started.
Here is a chart for candidate prices in PredictIt’s 2020 Democratic Nomination marketplace.
I personally think this chart is only useful if you are bored at work and need something that will give you a migraine strong enough to go home sick. I have no interest in knowing what the price of shares for credible candidates is, since our goal is find out how much dupes will pay for total losers, like Bill de Blasio. That means I need to get rid of Bernie and Biden at a minimum. Let’s try that:
From this I can tell that Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete, and Kamala Harris all peaked between 19 and 21 cents per share. Yang, on the other hand, peaked at 13 cents, and is back on the rise.
But I still don’t think this is the answer, because Sen. Kamala Harris and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are people with an actual track record, name ID, and experienced campaign staffs. Again, we are shopping for C-list candidates, so we need to get rid of anyone B-list or higher. That leaves us with Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg:
Now this is a chart I can work with. This data says that the highest exit price you can hope for for an unknown Democratic squirt walking around in Barack Obama’s shoes is between 13 and 21 cents. Conservative traders will look at Andrew Yang’s curve and say the best case for a quick pump is his peak of 13 cents, while aggressive traders will see it and think that a Mayor Pete-sized run to 20 cents is within reach.
However, I do not think this is the right time to be a savage. That is because after studying the facts, I no longer think that Mayor Pete is a fringe candidate powered by hype, whose PI prices are pure speculation. In other words, I don’t think his price curve is the right formula for a Dem Debate pump-and-dump. That is because it has been two months since Buttigieg got on his rocket ship to the top of national politics and it looks like he is piecing together a campaign operation that can keep him there. Mayor Pete raised $7 million in April and influential fake news publications, such as The Washington Post, still think he is wet AF. Recently, the WaPo said that Buttigieg, “clears the Commander in Chief bar.” Wowzers. There is just no way to study facts like these and not conclude that Mayor Pete is on the verge of pulling a Taylor Swift, which is what happens when a political talent crosses over from the genre space and into the mainstream.
So say hello to Mayor P Swift. And say goodbye to using Buttigieg’s price curve to set your exit price. I am actually okay with this though, because it tells me the answer to our question — what is the max value of a bum candidate surging after one good night, with no real chance of winning the primary? The answer to that is Andrew Yang. This is because he is already way inflated by hype and is a candidate that no one knows or cares about other than the 25-35 year old males who trade on PI and listen to Joe Rogan. So if your goal is to find out what the maximum price of an over-valued candidate with no actual credentials is, we have arrived at the answer.
13 cents is the max price that we at the Keendawg Grill think consumers will pay for week-old fish sandwiches made from the husks of rotting campaigns. Tune in later and I will let you know which ones I think have a chance of pumping at the debate. Also, tell me that this flyer I made isn’t the hottest thing you’ve seen this week.