5 Percent? No Chance. Also, Biden.
My last blog was a bunch of wonky stuff to tell you that I wasn’t sure if someone from the lower tier of Dem canddiates could hit 5% in the polls. After watching the debate, I have arrived at the answer:
For those keeping score, this is exactly what the data projected. The score is:
Data – 1
Keendawg’s Intuition – 0
I will now be rewarded with only a fraction of the alpha.
On another note, Biden’s meh performance guarantees that he slides a little in the polls, so load up on NO here.
He was always going to lose some support as people get big boners for candidates they’ve never heard of (and will forget just as fast) but tbh I don’t think Biden said anything tonight that would grow his base.
Also…. maybe you can get a better price on some of these tomorrow when people put down their phones and things cool off. That’s what I am hoping for.
KEENDAWG.
Biden’s performance was not disastrous. But it was mediocre enough to make Biden 1st in RCP on 8/1/2019? YES fall from .80 to .73. I wish I had waited longer to buy the max investment in YES!
I disagree with the recommendation to buy Biden higher? NO for the following reason. It is based on only one poll, before the debate and one poll, after the debate. Polls are known to bounce around wildly with huge statistical variations. That’s why RCP uses a moving average of 5-10 polls. ScottRasmussen.com’s poll is 100% online, which is why it is given so little respect among pollsters and political junkies.