June Report Card + U.S. Census Update Brought to You by the Film Independence Day
It’s report card time. Here’s how SSG did in June.
We did a lot of trading on the lead-up to the first Democratic debate, which basically turned into a bank robbery thanks to our savage Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris predictions. We score our portfolio based on percent gain per trade but I would like to note that this month’s haul is brought down a lot by the two lotto picks we made on the Democratic debate that will, by the end of things, amount to no loss at all.
We’ve got a few positions that we’re still holding, like our bet on the U.S. Census and some Joe Biden-related stuff. For everything else, this month’s report card and accompanying commentary is brought to you by the Fourth of July-themed film Independence Day, which is easily the best movie ever made that doesn’t star Patrick Swayze. I am 100 percent sure that it would have crushed the Oscars if Swayze had played the President of the United States instead of that pin-up girl, Bill Pullman. Such a loss. But still, we move on.
Here we go–
Will Kim Jung Un and Donald Trump meet again in 2019?
Our bet: YES at 63 cents.
Last action: WIN at 100.
Thoughts: Who are the farm animals taking the other end of these Trump-Kim bets?
Will Elizabeth Warren be the Democratic nominee?
Our bet: YES at 7 cents (appreciated to 14 cents by June 1)
Last action: Sold at 22.
Thoughts: Really hoping Sen. Warren gets another DNA test soon. I’d love to buy back into this campaign for cheap.
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic nominee?
Our bet: YES at 11 cents.
Last action: Sold at 17 cents.
Thoughts: Let go of this too soon. She is over-priced at 25 tho.
Will Joe Biden be the RCP frontrunner on Aug 1?
Our bet: Yes at 79 cents.
Latest action: Holding at 70 cents.
Thoughts: In the bag. Kamala Harris has pounded-out two strong polls since the June 27 debate but she’s still behind Biden in both. Also, the second Dem debate will happen on July 30-31, which won’t leave much time to influence this market even if she does give Biden the pipe.
Will the Census print the Citizenship Question?
Our bet: YES at 43 cents.
Last action: Holding at 14 cents.
Thoughts: We trust in Zoltar.
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for President?
Our bet: YES at 2 cents.
Last action: Holding at 1 cent.
Thoughts: Am I a rock formation? Because I can’t think of another reason why I am willing to let ex-geologist and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper drill me the way this bet has.
Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for President?
Our bet: YES at 1 cent.
Last action: Closed at 1 cent.
Thoughts: At the Democratic debate, Sen. Bennet reminded me of a lax bro in boat shoes who chats you up in the beer line of a wedding that your girlfriend dragged you to in Rhode Island. He would probably call you Chad and tell you about that one time he saw Guster play a show in 2003. Unfortunately, he would also make a terrible candidate for the President of the United States. GARBAGE.
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic nominee for President?
Our bet: YES at 14 cents
Last action: Sold at 16 cents.
Thoughts: In a perfect world, the GOP would have its shit together a little more and Mayor Pete would be their candidate. I enjoyed day trading for free money on him during the debate but I think Mayor Pete has problems appealing to black voters that he probably can’t fix in the next few months. That’s kind of a big deal in a Dem primary.
Will a federal charge be filed against John Brennan in 2019?
Our bet: NO at 81 cents.
Last Action: Holding at 84 cents.
Thoughts: I have honestly spent less time thinking about this bet than Bernie Sanders spends thinking about his wardrobe, and that is saying a lot.
Will Joe Biden’s support increase following the debates?
Our bet: NO at 65 cents.
Last Action: WIN. Closed at 100.
Thoughts: Can we talk about how awesome my Dem debate trading strategy was? Thanks.
Will Boris Johnson be the next UK Conservative Party Leader?
Our bet: YES at 60 cents.
Last Action: Closed at 93 cents.
Thoughts: I can’t figure out why all the smart people on earth thought Boris Johnson was a dope who would lose this race. I know his haircut sucks, but really?
Will Theresa May be the UK Prime Minister on June 30?
Our bet: YES at 84 Cents
Action: Sold at 96 cents. (She’s back)
Thoughts: This market was like being invited to a party in high school where there is actually beer (!) but then showing up too late to get anything other than a few warm Natty Lites… and then realizing that all the cool kids are drunk and getting handjobs while you are just getting a subpar buzz from fratwater. This one could have been way better if I had the stones to get in sooner.
Will the United States-Mexico-Canada Treaty pass Congress in 2019?
Our bet: NO at 66 cents.
Last action: 67 cents and holding.
Thoughts: I can feel how bored you got the second you read, “U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.”
Will a lower-tier Dem candidate get more than 5% of the vote after the debate?
Our bet: YES at 81
Last action: Sold at 100
Thoughts: I spent hours researching this market and ignored my own advice, missed a chance to buy in the 50s and got in at 81 a day later when everyone realized what total losers tier-2 Dems like Beto O’Rourke and Cory Booker are. Occasionally, my genius fails.
Will the Senate confirm a new Secretary of Homeland Security before Aug 31?
Our bet: NO at 71
Last action: Sold at 94
Thoughts: We almost bombed Iran and we have no Secretary of Homeland Security or Defense.
Here is it in grid form.
| Prediction | Entry | Exit | % Change |
| Will Boris Johnson be the next UK Conservative Party leader? | 60 | 93 | 55.0% |
| Will Theresa May be conservative party leader on 6/30? | 84 | 96 | 14.3% |
| Will USMCA be ratified in 2019? NO | 66 | 67 | 1.5% |
| Will Eilzabeth Warren be the Democratic nominee? | 14 | 22 | 57.1% |
| Will the Senate confirm a new DHS nominee | 71 | 94 | 32.4% |
| Will Biden be RCP frontunner on Aug 1? | 79 | 70 | -11.4% |
| Federal charge against John Brennan be filed? | 81 | 84 | 3.7% |
| Will Kamala Harris be Dem nominee? | 11 | 17 | 54.5% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be Dem nominee? | 14 | 16 | 14.3% |
| Will Kim Jung Un and Trump meet in 2019? | 63 | 100 | 58.7% |
| Will any lower tier Dems get 5% of polling after debate? | 81 | 100 | 23.5% |
| Will Census print citizenship question? | 43 | 14 | -67.4% |
| Will Biden support increase after debate? | 65 | 100 | 53.8% |
| Will Michael Bennet be Dem nominee? | 1 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Will John Hickenlooper be Dem nominee? | 2 | 1 | -50.0% |
| AVG | 16.0% |
KEENDAWG.
I haven’t read all of this yet, but I will at some point. In the meantime, I’m just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/Dan_F_Jacobson/status/1146153111393886208
So glad I didn’t trust in Zoltar! I sat out that market!
Theresa May announced on 5/24/2019 her intention to resign as Tory leader effective 6/7/2019, but she is still PM. The question was whether she would still be at 10 Downing St., not whether she would be Tory leader, on 6/30/2019. (Correctly stated in the main part of your post, but misstated in your table at the end.) I held it until it resolved at $1 on July 1 at 1:56 a.m. UK time because, why not? I also held Netanyahu YES until it resolved and Will early elections be called in UK? NO until it resolved.
Boris hasn’t won the Tory leadership contest yet, but I suppose your goal is not to be right, but to come out ahead! As it should be!
I’m a bit nervous about Biden (never expected to see a poll with his lead down to 2), but holding till August. Tempted to also buy 2nd Place in RCP on 8/1/2019? Biden NO but I’m hesitating…I’d really like to see some evidence that he’s stopped the bleeding, and he won’t have another big audience event until the very end of July.