June Report Card + U.S. Census Update Brought to You by the Film Independence Day

It’s report card time. Here’s how SSG did in June.

We did a lot of trading on the lead-up to the first Democratic debate, which basically turned into a bank robbery thanks to our savage Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris predictions. We score our portfolio based on percent gain per trade but I would like to note that this month’s haul is brought down a lot by the two lotto picks we made on the Democratic debate that will, by the end of things, amount to no loss at all.

We’ve got a few positions that we’re still holding, like our bet on the U.S. Census and some Joe Biden-related stuff. For everything else, this month’s report card and accompanying commentary is brought to you by the Fourth of July-themed filmĀ Independence Day, which is easily the best movie ever made that doesn’t star Patrick Swayze. I am 100 percent sure that it would have crushed the Oscars if Swayze had played the President of the United States instead of that pin-up girl, Bill Pullman. Such a loss. But still, we move on.

Here we go–

Will Kim Jung Un and Donald Trump meet again in 2019?

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Our bet: YES at 63 cents.

Last action: WIN at 100.

Thoughts: Who are the farm animals taking the other end of these Trump-Kim bets?

Will Elizabeth Warren be the Democratic nominee?

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Our bet: YES at 7 cents (appreciated to 14 cents by June 1)

Last action: Sold at 22.

Thoughts: Really hoping Sen. Warren gets another DNA test soon. I’d love to buy back into this campaign for cheap.

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic nominee?

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Our bet: YES at 11 cents.

Last action: Sold at 17 cents.

Thoughts: Let go of this too soon. She is over-priced at 25 tho.

Will Joe Biden be the RCP frontrunner on Aug 1?

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Our bet: Yes at 79 cents.

Latest action: Holding at 70 cents.

Thoughts: In the bag. Kamala Harris has pounded-out two strong polls since the June 27 debate but she’s still behind Biden in both. Also, the second Dem debate will happen on July 30-31, which won’t leave much time to influence this market even if she does give Biden the pipe.

Will the Census print the Citizenship Question?

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Our bet: YES at 43 cents.

Last action: Holding at 14 cents.

Thoughts: We trust in Zoltar.

Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for President?

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Our bet: YES at 2 cents.

Last action: Holding at 1 cent.

Thoughts: Am I a rock formation? Because I can’t think of another reason why I am willing to let ex-geologist and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper drill me the way this bet has.

Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for President?

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Our bet: YES at 1 cent.

Last action: Closed at 1 cent.

Thoughts: At the Democratic debate, Sen. Bennet reminded me of a lax bro in boat shoes who chats you up in the beer line of a wedding that your girlfriend dragged you to in Rhode Island. He would probably call you Chad and tell you about that one time he saw Guster play a show in 2003. Unfortunately, he would also make a terrible candidate for the President of the United States. GARBAGE.

Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic nominee for President?

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Our bet: YES at 14 cents

Last action: Sold at 16 cents.

Thoughts: In a perfect world, the GOP would have its shit together a little more and Mayor Pete would be their candidate. I enjoyed day trading for free money on him during the debate but I think Mayor Pete has problems appealing to black voters that he probably can’t fix in the next few months. That’s kind of a big deal in a Dem primary.

Will a federal charge be filed against John Brennan in 2019?

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Our bet: NO at 81 cents.

Last Action: Holding at 84 cents.

Thoughts: I have honestly spent less time thinking about this bet than Bernie Sanders spends thinking about his wardrobe, and that is saying a lot.

Will Joe Biden’s support increase following the debates?

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Our bet: NO at 65 cents.

Last Action: WIN. Closed at 100.

Thoughts: Can we talk about how awesome my Dem debate trading strategy was? Thanks.

Will Boris Johnson be the next UK Conservative Party Leader?

Winning Independence Day GIF by IFC

Our bet: YES at 60 cents.

Last Action: Closed at 93 cents.

Thoughts: I can’t figure out why all the smart people on earth thought Boris Johnson was a dope who would lose this race. I know his haircut sucks, but really?

Will Theresa May be the UK Prime Minister on June 30?

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Our bet: YES at 84 Cents

Action: Sold at 96 cents. (She’s back)

Thoughts: This market was like being invited to a party in high school where there is actually beer (!) but then showing up too late to get anything other than a few warm Natty Lites… and then realizing that all the cool kids are drunk and getting handjobs while you are just getting a subpar buzz from fratwater. This one could have been way better if I had the stones to get in sooner.

Will the United States-Mexico-Canada Treaty pass Congress in 2019?

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Our bet: NO at 66 cents.

Last action: 67 cents and holding.

Thoughts: I can feel how bored you got the second you read, “U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.”

Will a lower-tier Dem candidate get more than 5% of the vote after the debate?

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Our bet: YES at 81

Last action: Sold at 100

Thoughts: I spent hours researching this market and ignored my own advice, missed a chance to buy in the 50s and got in at 81 a day later when everyone realized what total losers tier-2 Dems like Beto O’Rourke and Cory Booker are. Occasionally, my genius fails.

Will the Senate confirm a new Secretary of Homeland Security before Aug 31?

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Our bet: NO at 71

Last action: Sold at 94

Thoughts: We almost bombed Iran and we have no Secretary of Homeland Security or Defense.

Here is it in grid form.

Prediction Entry Exit % Change
Will Boris Johnson be the next UK Conservative Party leader? 60 93 55.0%
Will Theresa May be conservative party leader on 6/30? 84 96 14.3%
Will USMCA be ratified in 2019? NO 66 67 1.5%
Will Eilzabeth Warren be the Democratic nominee? 14 22 57.1%
Will the Senate confirm a new DHS nominee 71 94 32.4%
Will Biden be RCP frontunner on Aug 1? 79 70 -11.4%
Federal charge against John Brennan be filed? 81 84 3.7%
Will Kamala Harris be Dem nominee? 11 17 54.5%
Will Pete Buttigieg be Dem nominee? 14 16 14.3%
Will Kim Jung Un and Trump meet in 2019? 63 100 58.7%
Will any lower tier Dems get 5% of polling after debate? 81 100 23.5%
Will Census print citizenship question? 43 14 -67.4%
Will Biden support increase after debate? 65 100 53.8%
Will Michael Bennet be Dem nominee? 1 1 0.0%
Will John Hickenlooper be Dem nominee? 2 1 -50.0%
AVG 16.0%

KEENDAWG.

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3 thoughts

  1. Theresa May announced on 5/24/2019 her intention to resign as Tory leader effective 6/7/2019, but she is still PM. The question was whether she would still be at 10 Downing St., not whether she would be Tory leader, on 6/30/2019. (Correctly stated in the main part of your post, but misstated in your table at the end.) I held it until it resolved at $1 on July 1 at 1:56 a.m. UK time because, why not? I also held Netanyahu YES until it resolved and Will early elections be called in UK? NO until it resolved.

    Boris hasn’t won the Tory leadership contest yet, but I suppose your goal is not to be right, but to come out ahead! As it should be!

  2. I’m a bit nervous about Biden (never expected to see a poll with his lead down to 2), but holding till August. Tempted to also buy 2nd Place in RCP on 8/1/2019? Biden NO but I’m hesitating…I’d really like to see some evidence that he’s stopped the bleeding, and he won’t have another big audience event until the very end of July.

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