I don’t know about you but I am not from a family where people just give advice. Part of this is because my grandpa took advice from a Merle Haggard song once and wound up in jail in Muskogee, Oklahoma, which was no bueno. Another reason why is that there is Google now so it is just way easier to search for “how to pack a fat hog” and “does pulling out work” than it is to ask someone. But I did get some advice from my grandpa once and that was “When you know, you know.” I have also heard this line a crappy romcoms that Meg Ryan stars in. Anyway, I have spent a lot of time thinking about it. When you know, you know.
For example, I just know that Rep. Denny Rehberg (D-MT) had easily the best mustache on Capitol Hill for his entire time in office.
I also know that unleaded fuel is for losers. I personally like to grind up my own lead with my neighbor Pat’s kids. And lastly, I just know that this is a bad bet.
But I am going to make it anyway. Right now, Uncle Joe, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders are the only people popping over the 5 percent mark in the Scott Rasmussen survey that PredictIt is pegging (non-sexually) these markets against. There are two other candidates who are close: YouTube Star Beto O’Rourke (4 percent) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (3 percent). I am not very bullish on either of them having a big night in Detroit. This is due to the fact that Mayor Pete is going to be on stage with Elizabeth Warren for the first time and she is definitely the only candidate who can make him look like a dummy. I am not trying to play dirty here but I am pretty sure that no one in history has ever mistaken Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders for Rhodes Scholars, which Buttigieg was. But Elizabeth Warren literally wrote the book on Middle Class decline and could have been one of Buttigieg’s professors while he was at Harvard.
As for Beto O’Rourke, people have just decided that he sucks. I honestly cannot tell you why. He is basically the Dubstep of Presidential politics. There was a short period of time where all the kids were into him, and then they got tired of Beto and moved on to something else, like Mayor Pete and/or Antifa-syle campus rioting. Basically, I think that no matter how well Beto does, people will just hear these words coming out of his mouth: “I am a pretty boy cuck loser, vote for someone else.” It is a real shame and I honestly feel bad for him, but he should know better than anyone that the shelf life for YouTube stars is extremely short.
So I honestly think the answer is that no one new breaks into the 5 percent club. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. This is definitely a risky bet but I think the real chances are closer to the 60s and not down in the 40s. If the price goes that way for me, I’ll probably sell. But the last Democratic debate really convinced me that even though there are 20 people on stage, no one is really paying attention to anyone other than the frontrunners. The only B-list or C-list candidates that anyone noticed in Miami (other than Ricky Martin and the 2 Live Cru) were former housing Secretary Julian Castro and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. And they did not break above five percent.
So here you have it, my high risk bet for this night. I’ll let you know if I have the stones to hold onto it: