I have been getting the same question from you monsters over-and-over: “Hey Keendawg, what did you think of that debate?” And even though I am not really a big fan of learning, I am going to answer this the way true scholars answer tough questions: by asking you one right back.
Who is next to quit? This is very relevant due to the fact that Joe Biden spent the whole night looking like this lion:
While Kamala Harris totally choked–
Most likely because she knew that Joe Biden and the rest of the Dem field was going to lower the boom on her, now that she is a frontrunner.
Tulsi Gabbard absolutely laid Harris out for her long career of jailing people who smoke pot while she herself was ripping fatties. Meanwhile, while Biden and Kamala got banged-up in this total grinder of a debate, Bernie, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and Mayor Pete cruised through the first night, which was more boring than Michael Phelps. So I 100-percent think that the question to ask after this round of debates isn’t, “Who is going to win?” but “Who is going to quit?” Because someone is going to cry “mercy” after a few more months of this kind of punishment.
Here are the five options that PredictIt gives you to pick from:
Mayor Pete “He’s like the Uber for Presidents” Buttigieg:
Mayor Pete’s campaign reminds me of an over-valued tech startup that has zero revenue and no customers despite the fact that it is valued at a billion dollars.
Mayor Pete raised $24 million (#1 in the field) last quarter. However, his beta test in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary need to show that he has customers who are buying what he is selling, because if he can’t pull a W in an early state, then he is basically going to get smoked permanently. Is Mayor Pete a political product that is ahead of its time? Or is he leading the market towards an Uber-style breakout? Whatever the case, his VCs won’t keep backing him if they think there’s no chance for a massive exit in November.
Earliest departure point: After the New Hampshire primary.
Joe “I’m Rich B*tch” Biden:
Uncle Joe has raised $21.5 million since getting into the POTUS race in April. He is basically the rich kid in this race who only has to work as hard as he wants due to the fact that he has inherited enough staff and donors from Obama to go the distance. That said, I have posted over 100 articles on this blog and only once have I ever given you permission to bet on Uncle Joe’s campaign. That is because it is still extremely unclear whether or not voters really want a 76-year old man who stutters when he talks. There is also a very real situation where Biden has to play from behind after Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders steal Iowa and New Hampshire from him. But Biden won’t scare easily due to the fact that the South Carolina and Nevada political machines are hand-me-downs he got from the Clintons and Obamas.
I basically see three scenarios for Biden quitting the race: (1) getting blanked 0-4 for in the first primaries; (2) Going 1-3 in the first four primaries and having a not-so-Super Tuesday; (2) health problems related to getting old and getting absolutely smashed on national TV.
Sen. Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren:
Sen. Warren raised $19 million last quarter, which can pay for a lot more DNA tests. But there is also way more pressure on her to perform early. This is due to the fact that every primary she lets Biden win puts him one step closer to his “inevitable” victory. And if that sensation gets out, then donors and voters will start to treat her the way the British and French treated her [0.1%] ancestors– i.e., they will stop selling her campaign the guns and horses they need to fight Joe Biden’s Manifest Destiny. I also think that she is much better positioned to win in Iowa and New Hampshire than South Carolina and Nevada. Basically, Warren needs to score fast and score early because she is just not built to grind it out.
Earliest Departure Date: After Super Tuesday
Sen. Kamala “Choke” Harris:
I don’t know why but I feel like Kamala is going to get smoked early on. I am just having a hard time imagining that there are a lot of farmers in Iowa and New Hampshire who are fired-up to hear about their white privilege and how they need to have gender-neutral outhouses. Harris only raised $12 million last quarter but she can amp that up once the heat is on. Remember, this is the same woman who raised $400,000 in a day for then-Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND).
Maybe Harris can pull one of those bonkers wins in Iowa, but I think Kamala is going to copy the Russian Army’s tactics to win this race, not just because she is a Red, but because it makes sense that she will let her enemies win some early battles so that she bait them into her fortress in California (Super Tuesday) and South Carolina (the black vote), where she will freeze them out in the winter 2020.
Earliest departure point: After Super Tuesday
Sen. Bernie Sanders: I honestly don’t think that Bernie Sanders cares about anything more than fighting for lost causes, like the Soviet Union–
…And being communist candidate for president in 2019. I don’t care at all what his fundraising numbers are because Bernie is a classic Trotsky-style candidate due to the fact that he will stick in this race just to get his views out and yell some more about, “millionaires and billionaires.”
Bernie is a total lion and he is going to roar. He’s going the distance.
Earliest departure point: Death.
What about all the others who we can’t bet on? In the next debate, the field goes down to ten. So anyone who doesn’t make that stage is basically dead meat. I personally am not going to write-off Marianne Williamson, Bill de Blasio, or Andrew Yang. They are a truly baffling cocktail of weird and compelling that the people are going to want to keep around. Then there is Julian Castro who is apparently actually good at being a politician, which has surprised the Fake News Media twice. However I sort of think Castro looks like a character from Star Wars but then again, the people love Star Wars so this is probably a good sign.
How to bet:
If you ask me, the smart play here is to take NO on Bernie and Kamala exiting next. There is no way either of them are out before Super Tuesday. Warren and Biden remind me of the French Army due to the fact that they are truly savage on paper but maybe using obsolete tactics and begging to get absolutely wrecked by a more modern adversary. I’m going to be watching this market closely.