I have never been a huge fan of time travel, mostly because for me it requires drinking 12-15 beers and teleporting into a truly vicious Sunday morning. Sometimes I am still in my shoes when I get there. Sometimes I am not wearing any clothes at all. But every time, I have a headache that is 10-20X worse than the pain RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel feels whenever she sees polling data for 2020.
Even though I do not personally like time travel, I am 99 percent sure that it is real due to the fact that I am writing about Democratic Presidential debates for the third time in three months, which is basically the plot of the movie Groundhog Day. Anyway, I am actually going to be talking about the Dem debates indirectly because this is the market in question–
…but everyone with a brain is basically assuming that not qualifying for the next round of debates is going to force a bunch of the 20+ Democratic presidential candidates to quit on the White House just like Barack O’Bama quit on the troops in Iraq. That is because the DNC is requiring candidates who want to be on stage in the September and October debates to have 130,000 donors and four polls with at least 2 percent support. This is more than double the standard from the past two debates that massive losers like Gov. Jay Inslee and and Sen. Michael Bennet barely met. What this tells me is that it is absolutely a crime that I am investigating this market alone, because it is an act of fraud and/or robbery that all these C-list Dems are asking old ladies and college students for money when their chances of being president are basically the same as mine. As I have said before, Marianne Williamson and John Delaney watch my Instagram stories. That should disqualify them immediately. I honestly think that the FBI should be investigating the 12 campaigns below for fraud because they are that dead:
However, I do not expect to see many Dems quit before August 31. The DNC just announced that it is using the same qualification standards for the October debate as September’s, which is basically an interest-free one month extension for loser candidates. C-listers like Sen. Kirsten Gilibrand and Gov. John Hickenlooper will be happy to vacuum-up whatever loose change they can find in Democratic donors’ couches, but they are still going to be short by the end of it. And without a September debate performance to boost their profile, I am honestly not sure what their plan is to get their name out, unless candidates like Bill de Blasio are hoping to pull a Kim Kardashian and release a sex tape to boost their following.
The obvious answer to this market is that YES, it’ll be four or fewer Dems that drop out before August 31. There is just no incentive for Dems to quite before the October debate. The only people who will lose anything at all are their donors, who are literally lighting their money on fire; and their staffers, whose final paychecks are definitely going to bounce. Unfortunately, I’m not the only trader who has figured this out today and I have watched this market go from 60/40 market 75/25. What a bummer. Anyway, I will be accumulating shares of YES, 4 or fewer; and NO, 5-6; depending on where the price action is. See you in the winners’ circle.