Summer is basically over and I am getting ready to hit the beach and crank a few Modelos for Labor Day. Ordinarily I would not bat an eye at you if you read this and said, “Hey Keendawg, you are being extremely irresponsible by getting banged-up with the boys instead of showing us the political future,” but honestly, if you come at me right now you are liable to get smoked. That is because basically nothing is going on in politics due to the fact that Congress is on recess and voters are smashing beers at the beach for Labor Day weekend. I honestly am so desperate for gambling action that I am betting acorns with the squirrel in my yard. Don’t worry, I totally crushed him so that guy is going to die this winter. What can I say, I am not a fan of losers.
That said I feel an extreme sense of duty to you, my readers. I will not let the summer die without giving you an outlook about what lies ahead in the fall, as we transition out of the DNC Pre-Season and into some huge conference games in Iowa and New Hampshire.
KEENDAWG’S CLOSING THOUGHTS – DNC PRE-SEASON (SUMMER 2019)
I would not be surprised if this primary was surprising
Maybe I am just hungover from a summer full of bingeing Modelos and awkward Democratic debates, but I still have no clue what Dem voters are shopping for in a presidential nominee. Most of the polls say that they want a familiar face aka Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders, but when I look at the Democratic electorate I do not get the feeling that these are the types of people who are out there buying tickets for familiar face acts. I personally attended the Hootie and the Blowfish re-union tour this summer and did not witness a single person complaining that the concert venue still had straws and white men inside of it, so probably not a lot of Dem primary voters there. I would also bet my last dollar that the Backstreet Boys and Blink-182 reunion tours were also dominated by people who think voting is stupid.
Compare that to Coachella, which is a music festivals in the mountainous desert where young people go camping dressed in black, to watch people they follow on YouTube preach ideas to destroy America.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden looks weaker but is by no means dead
I do not think that this race is Biden’s to win but it is definitely his to lose. The fact that he can hardly talk without stuttering is no bueno. Look at this video that some haters at The Daily Caller put together.
In addition to the fact that Joe Biden is not very good at talking these days, it is also a major problem that he has not really said why he is running for president other than the fact that he has multiple selfies with Barack O’Bama. Basically the only thing that he has made clear about this vision of America is that it is filtered through Ray Bans.
I AM FAVORING CANDIDATES WHO CAN GO THE DISTANCE OVER CANDIDATES WHO CAN STRIKE FAST AND DAZZLE
I have been approaching the question of, “Who will win the Dem nomination” from the angle of, “Who will win the early primaries.” There are a lot Democrats running for President but most of them remind me of NFL Quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater. This is because Mayor Pete, Sen. Cory Booker, and YouTube Star Beto O’Rourke have explosive talent but are guaranteed to breakdown as soon as they take their first massive hit at the pro level. Just look at what happened to Sen. Kamala Harris when she got laid the f*ck out by Joe Biden at the Detroit debate.
If Beto and Mayor Pete get blanked in Iowa and New Hampshire, then their 2020 season is basically over no matter how much money they spend on rehab. Sen. Cory Booker is a little different because he is playing an SEC schedule and just needs to win on the road in South Carolina. Long story short, these campaigns need to get out of the gate fast or else get benched. Also I have no idea what Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s strategy is other than not dying and hoping to get lucky.
UPSET POTENTIAL IS STILL A POTENTIAL
I am actually more bullish on a major upset than I should be. Then again I am a compulsive gambler who drinks cough syrup for fun. I see three possibilities for how this race will unfold:
(1) A brawl like the 2012 GOP primary. For those of you who had lives and/or were busy crushing beers and talking to actual girls (not just trying to sell them weight lifting equipment on Craigslist), this was the cycle where Mitt Romney was the favorite but had to deploy a nuclear arsenal of campaign cash to beat off human wave-style attacks of Tea Partiers trying to blow him off the map.
Romney got severely banged-up in Iowa by Ron Paul and basically had to retreat FAST.
Then got revenge in the Granite State:
He had to call in some serious air support to get out of the Midwest in one piece:
And then had to wreck Newt Gingrich in a late-stage challenge:
By the time Romney was done with the primaries, it was hardly a surprise that Mitt was out of bullets to fight President O’Bama.
Then there is he second possibility, which is a primary that tracks with the 2016 GOP race, where all the super power candidates go nuclear and cancel each other out, and we are left in some weird Mad Max reality where an outside like Andrew Yang or Pete Buttigieg pops through an apocalyptically desolated field due to the fact that they actually have new ideas and personality, a la Trump in 2016.
Then there is a third possibility where everyone just agrees that whoever wins the first primary wins the race and people give up by March. This is pretty much what happened to John Kerry in 2004
Honestly it is late at night and I have no idea what will happen. I’m really excited to see it unfold and will back with all the alpha you can drink. We won 82 percent of our bets this summer. Remember that. There is more gold on this blog than in Fort Knox. Crush some beers with me and enjoy the ride.