IA, NH, NV, and SC: Am I Scared, Lazy, or Wise?
I will go ahead and tell you the truth. I am not betting on any of the early state primaries yet. I personally think the first Dem primaries are an extremely dangerous place to hang around, because once the bullets start flying in Iowa and New Hampshire, they are going to be ripping through bad campaigns quicker than I can rip through a 30-rack of Modelos with the boys.
My bones tell me that there isn’t a smart play right now, unless you are extremely confident in Joe Biden. His shares are dirt cheap everywhere but in South Carolina, which I will get into later. But if you are asking me, I am just not that excited about his campaign. This is due to the fact that Uncle Joe can hardly even talk, and that Pete Butiggieg, who is the Mayor of some chump town called “Indiana,” out-raised him by $4 million this past quarter. Joe Biden is honestly looking older and more banged-up going into this election than Peyton Manning did going into Super Bowl 50. He also looks like he needs whatever stem cell therapy Manning got to fix his nerve damage.
I personally think that Uncle Joe is better positioned to win Nevada and South Carolina than Iowa and New Hampshire, due to the fact that Nevada is a machine state, which favors an old incumbent like him; and South Carolina has an extremely large black population, which means that Sen. Elizabeth Warren will probably get less than 100 votes there. But if she and Bernie smoke Joe Biden in the first two primaries, Biden is going to be looking dead AF coming down the stretch in Nevada and South Carolina. So spending >50 cents on a YES share of Biden in SC is feeling a little rich to me. I just can’t do it, not if he is getting dunked-on in the preceding competitions, which is possible.
I also think that Warren shares feel stupidly expensive across the board. But idk, I have been getting smoked all summer by thinking that the Warren Wagon can’t keep rolling at this pace. So it might be the case that the Warren Wagon is actually a political death machine that is just going to crush everything in its path.
I just can’t see it — at least not yet. Everything feels too bonkers for an ending like that, where we learn that being the Dem nominee was basically in Sen. Warren’s DNA all along, which President Trump low-balled bigly in this tweet:
I should not have to remind you animals but this race is completely insane. There is a guy named Andrew Yang running in it who wants to pay you $1000-a-month to vote for him. Bernie Sanders just had a grabber. Some lunatic named “Marianne Williamson” raised $3 million bucks, either because the American people think she is a funny joke or that she should be president. I’m not sure which frightens me more. And oh yeah boys, don’t forget that Donald Trump might be getting impeached. Knowing all of this, I just don’t want to put up a lot of cash on anything this far out because my bones are telling me there are some reversals and pump fakes coming before this race is done. Remember how Kamala Harris became the frontrunner overnight and then lost it all on the next debate? Yeah, that can happen again. This race is totally going to have its Herman CainÂ coming in with some potent weird. I just hope that means we get another Smoking Man because this guy was pimp AF.
Moral of the story, I don’t feel like predicting these states yet, because there are so many variables stacked-up between here and the primary day.Â Check back later and maybe I’ll tell you something interesting. For now, I am way more focused on protecting my bag of gold from robbers.