NEVADA PRIMARY: I am Going Mining in the Silver State

Yesterday I wrote that I did not think there were any exciting plays to make in the early state primaries. But I have been prospecting all night long and have decided to stake my claim in the Silver Sate aka Nevada. This is due to the fact that Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been getting iced-out worse there than the Donner Party in a snow storm. However, there are lots of farm animals on PredictIt whose money I am cannibalizing because they are making dumb bets on her campaign. These goners are wrongly assuming that Sen. Warren’s momentum in the rest of the country is going to translate in Nevada. Basically, the point of this post is to tell you there is some amazing price arbitrage if you’re willing to make a bet that the Mad Max death machine Sen Warren has built in Iowa and New Hampshire is going to get skunked out in the desert.

warren death machine2

Let’s review. Sen. Warren raised $24 million in the 3rd quarter of 2019 (2nd only to Bernie) and this is what the trend lines look like in the polls for her:

Iowa Dem Polls

National polls:

Screen Shot 2019-10-09 at 7.38.07 AM

Check out how Uncle Joe has been wobbling down from the sky like a shot-up biplane while Warren’s campaign has just been on a rocketship. The same thing is true in New Hampshire where she and Biden are in a statistical tie.  On PredictI, all this good news has made Sen. Warren shares spike across the board. Get a load of this:

Can you spot the outlier? Because one of these is way off and I have just been going ape in the PredictIt goldmine to start harvesting ore from it. That one is NEVADA, where Sen. Warren’s shares are 2.5X as expensive as Bernie and Biden’s, despite the fact that they have been crushing her there since forever. Check out the mismatch:


Nevada is the home of a few things that are important for a savage political operator to know about. One of them is Las Vegas, which is still run by the mafia, except it has a new name: the Culinary Workers Union aka the casino workers.

Another thing worth knowing about is Lake Tahoe/Washoe County, which is basically a refugee camp for rich Republicans fleeing persecution in California. I personally think they should re-name it “New Anaheim.” It also predicts Western politics as well as this octopus predicts *soccer games.

*Soccer is for losers.

The third thing to know about is Harry Reid’s political machine, which is an offshoot of the casino workers union in Vegas.

And the fourth thing to know is that this state is now 28 percent Latino. These things are no bueno for Elizabeth Warren because:

— Harry’s Reid machine and the Culinary Workers Union are always going to be biased towards an old-school guy like Joe Biden who spent 29 years working with Sen. Reid. They’re a sick hand-me-down for Biden to inherit.

— Reid’s machine is so savage that casino workers get separate polling locations at special dates and hours so that they can vote early and often.

— BTW, Harry Reid used to run the Nevada Gaming commission so all of these people are his peasants.

— Nevada backed Hilary Clinton in 2008 and 2016. Again, machine state. It notably did not back the insurgent candidate, Sen. Barack O’Bama (D-IL).

— Nevada is 28 percent Latino. As of September, Elizabeth Warren was at a 10-point deficit nationally to Biden and Bernie with Latino voters. An LA Times/UC Berkley poll in nearby California showed a similar gulf for Warren with Latinos.

Honestly, the only thing that Warren has going for her is that the PredictIt market awards the winnings to whoever wins the popular contest in Nevada, which accounts for 23 of 36 delegates. The other 13 delegates go to party hacks who have probably been cranking beers on the Vegas Strip with Uncle Joe and Harry Reid since Frank Sinatra was crooning. The only other scenario that would give Sen. Warren a win would be if she absolutely dunks over Bernie and Biden’s head in IA and NH.

warren dunk

I consider this unlikely, but not impossible.

So basically, I am out of reasons to tell you why it makes sense to spend 2.5X on Warren shares in a state that doesn’t favor her and where she has never held a lead. I guess Politico wrote a story a while ago about her crushing it there but it has been proven to be fake news so far. With her prices this high, there are just too many ways to make easy money on this market by holding YES shares on Bernie & Biden, or NO shares on Warren, until these valuations come back down to earth. This is just dum-dum city right now.

I am coming in hot here to buy up some cheap YES shares on Bernie and Biden (36 cents total) and can’t wait for them to pay out like a slot.


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