Casual Reminder: Betting on RCP Markets is Baloney

In case you don’t already know, I am 100-percent opposed to betting on post-debate RCP Polling markets like these:

Screen Shot 2019-10-15 at 2.09.37 PM

That is because an RCP market is like a financial derivative. There are just way too many things going on inside of them for a normal human being to make sense of. A few of them are:

— Which RCP polls are going to get dropped soon and will they be dropped before this contract closes?

— Will the post-debate polls be better or worse than that soon-to-be-removed poll?

— Will the candidate do well at the debate?

— Will the public care?

I could go on but we are already at four variables. I don’t bet on anything that has more than two. These bets are stupid. Don’t make them.



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