Today I logged on to my PredicIt account and noticed I had more money than usual. Part of me wondered if this was due to the fact that I had made a stealth bet on Sean Spicer being way better at dancing on ABC’s ballroom than in the the White House’s press room, but it turned out that this was fake news.
The real reason why my bag of gold has gotten heavier is that I had made a stealth bet in February about Kentucky’s 2019 Gubernatorial election which I forgot about faster than Home Alone 3. This was for two reasons:
(1) I had zero evidence to support my point of view and was waiting for some polling to come out before publishing this piece;
(2) I was living on a farm in New Mexico and distracted AF. BTW, here is farmer Keendawg:
Now, before we open up the archives to hear why I thought that Gov. Bevin would overcome the headwinds to win re-election, I am going to include some actual facts from Mason-Dixon’s October Poll about this race. You know that I am 100 percent opposed to learning, so you can skip this part if you are alpha AF like me:
— President Trump has a higher approval rating in Kentucky than the Democratic candidate for governor, Andy Beshear (55 to 37).
— Even if the 25 percent of respondents who have never heard of Beshear favored him, he’d still be less popular than the President. His campaign got woke to this fact and released this ad:
— 65 percent of Kentuckians are opposed to impeaching Donald Trump and 57 percent approve of his work in the White House. Compare this to the fact that only 42 percent of Kentuckians are registered Republicans and 49 percent are registered Democrats.
— That said, I personally think that liberal voters in Louisville are more energized to show up on election day than Bevin’s posse. But the enthusiasm gap in Kentucky has to be much smaller than it is nationally and Trump has some events planned there.
— There is also the possibility that Republicans will turn on Trump if impeachment gets much worse. I personally do not think this will happen at the grassroots level before election day on November 5. Maybe in DC though.
All together, this poll is bad news for Democratic nominee Andy Beshear, who is running in a time where cultural politics are the leading story for his party, and in a state where the Democratic Party’s woke theology is less cool than the saturated fats in a bucket of Kentucky Fried Chicken.
So my question to you is — was February Keendawg right or wrong?
FROM KEENDAWG’S ARCHIVES — FEBRUARY 25, 2019:
THE KENTUCKY GUBERNATORIAL IS SOME TOP-SHELF ALPHA
Today I am going to write about two of my favorite things. Those things are the Commonwealth of Kentucky (where the Keendawg was born) and it’s off-year, 2019 gubernatorial election.
PredictIt currently has this market open for those with the stones to wager:
Since we are talking about Kentucky, I will go ahead and tell you that I love off-year elections because they remind me of collectible single-barrel bourbons. That is due to the fact that they are rare, people spend way too much money on them, and everyone always claims to enjoy their taste, whether it is victory or defeat. Basically, no matter what the result of an off-year election is, both parties declares victory. The losers usually say, “we should have lost by way more, so the other party is going to get crushed next November;” and the winners usually reply that, “your whole team is a bunch of sissies because you couldn’t win the only meaningful race of the season.” It’s total vaudeville.
As you now know, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin (R-KY) is up for re-election in 2019. If you are on the JV PredictIt team then you are probably thinking, “Oh, Kentucky. That place has more Republicans per square inch than a Vineyard Vines store.” But I would pump the breaks on that before your bank account gets absolutely hosed. First of all, the Bluegrass State has had a grand total of three Republican governors in the last 50 years, none of which were re-elected. And the Republicans didn’t even get control of the Kentucky House of Representatives until 2017. Kentucky might consistently rank near the bottom when it comes to educational attainment and kale salad availability, but it is definitely up there at the top with the likes of Massachusetts, Vermont, and Minnesota when it comes to being a place whose political profile at the federal level (very Republican) clashes big time with its political culture at the state level (historically, very Democratic).
It gets even crazier, because you could actually sound smart arguing that Governor Bevin and his Republican honchos are underdogs in this race. Here’s why:
First, Matt Bevin isn’t even from Kentucky. This is bad because in state politics, having a bridge or courthouse named after one of your dead ancestors is way more important than having any actual ability to do your job. Ask Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) or Governor/President George W. Bush about that. [EDITOR’S NOTE – DEM NOMINEE ANDY BESHEAR IS THE SON OF A POPULAR EX-GOVERNOR]
Second, Matt Bevin comes from Kentucky’s only major city, which is Louisville. This is a very important point about bipartisanship in the Bluegrass State, because basically everyone living in rural Kentucky and in Lexington agrees that it is absolutely essential to water down Louisville’s representation in Frankfort. So he’s got that going against him too.
Fourth, because Kentucky has been a Democratic stronghold for most of its existence, all of the state’s top-shelf political dynasties are also Democrats. Going off the Democratic field that has already announced, this means that Bevin’s road to re-election will go through at least one of the following: the current AG and son of a popular former governor (Andy Beshear), an heir-by-marriage to Louisville’s biggest bourbon fortune (Gil Holland), a career Frankfort swamp creature (Adam Edelen), and Appalachia’s version of Newt Gingrich (Rocky Adkins). I see zero cupcakes in that batch.
Third, Bevin is way underwater in the polls and trails all of his likely Democratic challengers. [EDITOR’S NOTE – THIS IS WAY BETTER NOW]
And fourth, Matt Bevin’s public personality is that of a successful businessman with no political experience, a crippling social media addiction, and huge opinions that constantly get him in trouble with the local establishment. Sound like anyone else you know?
That’s right, animals. What we’ve got on our hands in Kentucky’s governor race is a preview for the 2020 Presidential campaign. For the first time since the Civil War, this statement is true: as Kentucky goes, so goes America.
How to bet this market:
After all of that, I am long on Bevin winning re-election.
A big reason why the Democratic Party has been able to survive at the state level in Kentucky is that their pols are as horrified by Alex Ocasio-Crotez style liberalism as the Republicans are. However, I highly doubt that Bevin’s Democratic challenger will be able to keep this up. It is going to be extremely difficult for Kentucky Democrats to distinguish themselves from progressive war hawks like Senators Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), because those same mad dogs are going to be on TV every night trying to win votes and fundraising dollars for the Democratic Presidential primary, which is going to be happening at the exact same time, and which is going to be a woke arms race. We have already already seen Harris and Warren match each other on promising slavery reparations. It is only a matter of time before someone like Sen. Cory Booker or Kirstin Gillibrand hits back by promising to open a Department of Justice investigation into the color white, or a tax credit for people who listen to Pod Save America.
The point is, as long as national Democrats are campaigning on cultural issues, local Democrats like those in Kentucky are going to suffer. Come election day, Kentuckians will take Democratic calls for “bipartisanship” as a Trojan Horse for a liberal conspiracy to make Spanish the national language and dress all of their children in vagina hats.
That’s why I think that YES shares on Bevin being re-elected are a good buy in the low-to-mid 60s. Hear me out: no bookie is ever going to give a Kentucky Republican less than a 50 percent chance of winning this election and I personally think the odds for Bevin winning are closer to 70 percent. Therefore, Dr. Keendawg believes that this market will float from the mid-50s to the low 70s from now until election day, with ample opportunities for you to get in and get out for profit as long as you are patient and have the stones to sweat out a few bad polls.
So put a few dollars into Gov. Matt Bevin’s bourbon barrel and let it age in the PredictIt rackhouse until fall. I guarantee you, when you crack it open in November, it’s going to taste sweeter than ever.