A long time ago, I wrote about Chinese currency manipulation and whether or not President Trump was going toÂ ball tap Emperor Xi’s regime with some sanctions because of it. At that time, I did not think it was a good idea to take a position on either side of this bet. This was due to the fact that even though Trump and all the MAGA mad dogs were barking about adding China to the naughty list of “currency manipulators,” that list wasn’t scheduled to be updated until an October Treasury report, and October was a long way away.
Well, the Treasury Department still has not updated its naughty list and October is basically over. This fact has a lot of people yapping about whether or not they will release the underlying trade report; and if whenever they do, China’s name will be on the currency manipulation list. That brings us to here:
First of all I should go ahead and clarify that I am not an expert on China.Â I have never seen a dragon and I do no eat carbs unless they come out of a Modelo can, so do not even get me started on rice. I am a ruthless scholar though so I went straight to the source for information. I asked China’s Ambassador to the USA for a quote.
— Keendawg ???????????? (@keendawg) October 29, 2019
Unfortunately, LeBron did not respond. But that is 100 percent typical because (1)Â Emperor Xi’s regime is not transparent; and (2) everyone knows that Nixon opened China and not LBJ. The downside is that what you are about to read is the work of my genius and my genius alone.
Will Trump Label Emperor Xi a Currency Manipulator?
First of all, Trump has been bragging a lot about signing “Phase One” of a treaty to resolve the USA-China trade war. According to the talking heads, Trump or one of his delegates will sign this treaty during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Conference set for Chile on November 16-17. So this tells me that Trump is not going to be very interested in rocking the boat between now and then. I also think that Trump is 100 percent honest whenever he talks about foreign policy, because his tendency is just to do whatever he wants and make his advisors figure out the rest (North Korea, Syria, Iran nukes) while he eats McDonalds and hate watches Chris Cuomo’s show on CNN.
The other side of this story is that Donald Trump is alpha AF and is not really into joking around. If things go badly in Chile and Trump’s trade plan gets banged-up worse than a Boxer Rebellion, then I fully expect him to go absolutely berserk and nuke China with the “currency manipulator” card, as well as push ahead on the scheduled December 15 tariff increases. The important part is that I am 100 percent in the camp of people who think Trump is delaying Treasury’s report until he reads the tea leaves of his first round of trade negotiations.
Yes, my money is definitely riding a dragon on this one. Because right now Trump’s presidency is more endangered than Tibetan sovereignty thanks to the woke cultural revolution that is propelling Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats towards an impeachment vote. But I personally think that one of Donald Trump’s most genius ideas is to use foreign policy to distract people from how bonkers he is when he gets too hopped-up on Diet Coke, or whatever it is that tea-totalers like him drink to get down. So I absolutely think it is possible that Trump would use the “currency manipulator” card to change the conversation in D.C. This doesn’t bother me a lot though, because Trump wins no matter what on this issue. If Trump negotiates better trade terms for the U.S., then he is a hero delivering on his “fairer trade” promises to voters. And if Emperor Xi bones him and pulls out of this deal, then Trump can slap him with the “currency manipulator” label and deliver on the very same promise. No matter how this cookie crumbles, the fortune looks good for Trump.
Given the short game clock left in 2019 and my personal belief that Donald Trump just tells like it is when it comes to foreign policy, I think this issue is dead in 2019. Maybe it will come back next year. But for now, it’s a NO.