MAILBAG: China, the GOP Senate, and My True Identity
Here is this week’s mailbag. You write and we will answer:
FROM NATE K:
So is the long term impeachment play a bet against Republican control of the Senate? If you play the tape out to the end, it’s impeachment in the house, Senate does not uphold, but it’s a broadside against every Republican senator cause they have to campaign against people calling them traitors, a motivated Dem base, and a likely bummed out base of their own, plus a 23-12 R vs D swing?
I think you are onto something. The problem with your lead is that whatever money you bet on this outcome will be locked-up until November 2020. That’s a long time and there will be plenty of chances to get into his market before then, most likely at the same price as today or similar. If you want to learn more about the “GOP Wipeout,” Axios just did a special on it here:Â The GOP’s Nightmare Scenario.
Also Nate Cohn, who is not a liberal flunky despite working for The New York Times, published this threadÂ on Texas’s leftward drift that is worth reading:
I am not convinced that Trump's standing is any better in TX than many traditional battlegrounds. I don't know whether there's a candidate poised to exploit it (Beto's socially liberal, kind of centrist econ shtick is a decent way), but I do think the opening is real
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 2, 2019
Maybe I will revisit this subject soon. My thoughts right now are to wait longer and see where the impeachment story goes first. We basically have all the time in the world to get into this market.
FROM THE BOARDS:
In response to my prediction that the U.S. will not label China a currency manipulator in 2019, thanks to Phase 1 of a trade treaty with China that Trump says he will sign at the November APEC Conference:
This is big news, but to me, the song remains the same. If Trump and Emperor Xi reach a Phase 1 agreement, they’ll just meet someplace else. The White House stated that, “We look forward to finalizing Phase One of the historic trade deal with China within the same time frame,” andÂ The South China Morning Post reported that negotiations by phone are resuming in lieu of APEC. I also think that Trump is not a moron and knows he is better off de-escalating this scrap with China before the election, because farmers in the Midwest are getting pretty banged-up by Chinese tariffs and Trump 100 percent needs their support if he’s going to win. The more I think about it the more I think this actually increases the chances of currency manipulation punting to 2020, because APEC’s cancellation really means that a pressure-inducing November 16 deadline is now gone.
Let me be a pyscho and say this: I am thinking in a totally different direction now and am wondering if Trump is going to take an un-scheduled trip to Asia to get this done and potentially stop in North Korea to crank a few beers with Kim Jung Un.
In response to my genius podcast on this week’s Southern governors races:
Nope. Keep on guessing.