KENTUCKY AFTERMATH/LOUISIANA FORECAST/IS TRUMP SCREWED?
Animals, this election in Kentucky has really got my head twisted-up. That is because for many of you, I gave garbage advice that Gov. Matt Bevin would survive a tough night. But for those of you who traded as the returns came in and monitored the PredictIt message boards, you saw that I read the tea leaves and flipped my position pretty quickly:
BTW, this is exactly what the news media started zero-ing in on about 15 minutes later:
Some really impressive numbers for Beshear (D) in Northern Kentucky when you take Boone/Kenton/Campbell as a whole. Thinking Bevin (R) is in some trouble. #KYGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 6, 2019
I'd say Bevin was doing what he needs if I was looking at completed rural areas. But some of the early urban/suburban numbers–admittedly incomplete–do keep me interested. The GOP margin in Boone is cut in half right now w/50 precincts in
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 6, 2019
Another really bad result for Bevin: suburban Cincy county of Kenton.
Bevin won with 57% in 2015.
He's losing to Beshear with just 47% right now. (89/106 precincts in).https://t.co/n77X3yZ0Z4— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 6, 2019
I took a loss on my initial position by bailing out of my “Bevin Wins” prediction. At the end of the night, I was up about 35% percent with an average YES price on Beshear of 57 cents and a hedge in place to prevent an unforeseen reversal. But my guess is that most of you did not get to benefit from that. You probably set your positions and went about your lives. I hate this. Ideally, I want to provide you with information that makes both of us money — but when things start moving really fast, like when election returns come in, it’s hard to get information out anywhere other than on the PredictIt boards. It’s definitely impossible to write a convincing blog.
Due to these facts, I will experiment with providing knowledge up front about what I am looking for and what indicators might influence my trading decisions as returns come in on election night. Yes, I was happy to turn my losing position in Kentucky into one that was very profitable, but the trust of you readers — and the success of this community — is worth a lot more to me than a one-day feast on Gov. Matt Bevin’s political corpse.
LOUISIANA – NEW FORECAST???
As you recall, I bet that Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards holds in Louisiana. The Kentucky election tells me what I already know, which is that all of these races are on a razor’s edge and anyone who says they have better than an educated guess as to who wins is a liar. So with that in mind, I sold my position on JBE for a nice gain. In at 37, out at 52. I will begin this election from a neutral stance when the returns roll in. Hopefully I’ll have a jungle guide for you animals to use on the day.
Oh and BTW, if you thought that all politics were national — remember that Trump’s approval rating in Kentucky was over 60 percent. Yes, these races might actually be about the candidates and not the never-ending clash between the President as his Democratic rivals/the Fake News Media. Consider that going forward.
TRUMP — OUTLOOK FOR 2020???
I got some more DMs tonight from NATE K, a reader whose question about 2020 I published in my mailbag. He wrote me last week to talk about his plan to bet on the Republicans losing the Senate next year, thanks to the death-by-a-thousand-cuts torture that Nancy Pelosi is inflicting on President Trump and the GOP through impeachment. In his latest message, he said:
“Seriously, turnout is big in KY, which means my bet above [On R’s losing House and Senate] is a good long term bet…. Don’t the Brits take action like that? That’d be an interesting take for your site. Long term plays.”
First of all, the Brits do take action on what you described but they are very good at keeping you from betting overseas. Secondly, Bovada has a politics book that you can get action on major elections so I would check there. I have a code somewhere to get you free money for signing up with them but I forgot it and I have to get this post out fast. Any of you who want it can DM me.
As for the question — will the GOP lose the House and Senate in 2020 — my reaction is the same as it was a few days ago: yes, very possible. But it’s a long time for your money to be locked-up and the odds aren’t especially appealing at ~32 percent (34 is the peak). I dunno I am sort of being a beta though, because the real world odds of a full Democratic takeover are probably closer to 40-50 percent. So f-ck it, for you Nate K, I will throw down $6. I just bought 20 shares. Let’s get rich together.
KEENDAWG.
Glad I trusted my instincts and stayed out of all these gubernatorial elections markets (including LA)! The turnout in KY was huge for an odd-year election, Bevin was incredibly unpopular (in part because of taking away Medicaid from tens of thousands of Kentuckians, according to the national cable news networks) and unlikeable, and it didn’t hurt Beshear that his last name was the same as a popular former governor (who happened to be his father).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mxRg4R0XlA