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The Republicans are moving out of the Kentucky governor’s mansion and Michael Bloomberg is moving into the White House race. Let’s chat for a second about what this means for the Democratic field.
To begin with, Michael Bloomberg is two things: (1) a Republican-turned Democrat who is a moderate; and (2) absolutely dripping in cash. Bloomberg is the third biggest political donor in U.S. history with $164 million dollars of lifetime giving, 99 percent of which he directed to Democrats. So I dunno, maybe not much of a moderate. I guess the jury is still out on whether or not this matters though, because Donald Trump was poor AF for a presidential candidate and Mitt Romney/Hillary Clinton were loaded. Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s fellow rich guy, Tom Steyer, recently spent $48 million in Iowa to get 3 percent support in the polls there, so obviously there is more to the game than just tossing some bread around.
What does this mean for Joe Biden? Lots of people in the Fake News Media (FNM) have been barking about how Bloomberg is a bigger threat to him than Kevin Durant is to the LA Lakers, but I personally think it is more complicated. Joe Biden is not electable because he is a moderate. He is electable because he has an absolute vice grip on the black vote and African-Americans are basically king makers in the Democratic Party. I am honestly not sure how a Jewish billionaire from New York City, who is most famous for trying to ban large sodas, is going to knock Barack Obama’s vice president off the throne with black voters.
Secondly, it is important to remember that the FNM is covering this primary the way that they would write a season of an actual TV show. Every candidate seems to be getting his or her own character arc. Right now the FNM is talking a lot about how Elizabeth Warren is on the decline. This is hilarious because they just spent months yapping about how she was the #1 big dawg to beat. These days they have a serious chubby for Pete Buttigieg. But every time I look at the polls, I see that almost nothing is actually changing. This really puts the “fake” in Fake News Media, but it is also proof that Bloomberg will probably get to be a star at some point during the campaign, so buying some cheap shares (<7 cents cents) is a great idea if the price comes down. A man with his name ID and bankroll is going to get a story arc.
Do I think that Michael Bloomberg could change things up in a serious way? Absolutely. For months I have been saying that this race is due for a reversal. But my gut says that everything depends on how badly Joe Biden belly-flops in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he is in a worse position to win than Justin Verlander pitching in any World Series game. If Biden lands with too big of a splash then the “Biden is inevitable” narrative will dissolve before the race gets to Nevada and South Carolina where he is much stronger. This scenario would basically turn the DNC into a prison riot where voters and candidates just slaughter each other until someone regains control of the field
Maybe Bloomberg’s money and name ID will change this race. Maybe he will push the primary into a brokered convention. Or maybe things will basically be over by the time he joins on Super Tuesday. It’s hard to say from here but I am fired-up.