In case you have not noticed, I have been slowing down a little. This is because the world of politics is starting to feel like Florida in the fall. By that I do not mean that it has been taken over by geezers like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren and crazy white people who are obviously high on meth, like Donald Trump. When I say that politics feels like “Florida in the fall,” I mean that the combined effect of Trump’s impeachment inquiry and the Democratic Presidential Primary is shaping up to be a massive double-banger superstorm like this:
That’s right. It’s HURRICANE SZN in politics!!!!
That means we are living in an extremely dangerous time to be betting on PredictIt and that making the wrong forecast could have serious consequences. With that in mind, I am going to summarize how I am steering my ship with these monster storms lurking out over the horizon.
FIRST, there has been tons of chatter in the Fake News Media (FNM) about some shifts in the early primary polls.
(1) In Iowa, Joe Biden has been pursued to death by Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. According to the FNM, Joe Biden is now crash-landing his doomed campaign into Iowa’s amber waves of grain like a busted Cuban coke dealer crash-landing his jet into Key West’s turquoise waters.
(2) Elizabeth Warren’s campaign, which has been on an absolute heater since summer, is finally coming down from its high. Warren has gotten tangled in the swamps of a Medicare-for-All plan that actually does tax the middle class and this has made non-psycho voters realize that they overdosed on the white woke powder they bought from her on Twitter. To that end, Warren’s brief lead in the national polls is gone, her advantage in Iowa is eroding like the jawline of a north Florida meth head, and she is now in a statistical tie with Biden and Sanders for alpha dawg in New Hampshire.
(3) People are getting woke to the fact that even though Joe Biden has advantages in Nevada and South Carolina, they will be more irrelevant than the Miami Dolphins if he gets blanked in Iowa and New Hampshire.
So with all that said… here is my survival guide for HURRICANE SZN.
ON JOE BIDEN —
First of all, the Fake News Media has been saying that Joe Biden’s campaign stinks for almost as long as it has existed. This 100 percent reminds me of Florida due to the fact that the FNM is also always throwing shade on the Sunshine State. The FNM thinks that Florida is awful but obviously no one is listening because it has grown to be the #3 most populous state with the nation’s fourth largest economy. Similarly, the FNM also thinks that Joe Biden is a dog even though the facts do not support that. Biden leads in the national polls, leads in Nevada and South Carolina, has a vice grip on the black vote, and is competitive in New Hampshire. So really the story here is that the FNM doesn’t want to vote for Joe Biden or live in Florida. That is not news at all. Everyone knows that.
MY TAKE: I do not have much of a chubby for Biden’s campaign because he can hardly talk. But the fake news about him is hilariously overblown. There might even be a chance to buy him low in Iowa at 14 cents and flip that a few weeks later, once the story changes again.
ON MAYOR PETE, ELIZABETH WARREN OR WHOEVER THE NEW COOL CANDIDATE IS–
Secondly, I personally do not care about the polls that are constantly coming out in early primary states. I have no meaningful bets on Iowa or New Hampshire because (1) I do not know who is going to win but have plenty of time to decide; and (2) the trendy narrative about which candidate is hot and which candidate is not isn’t translating to PredictIt markets in a predictable way.
Do I think that giving Mayor Pete a 20 percent chance of winning New Hampshire is stupid? Absolutely. But do I feel like betting 81 cents per share that he’ll lose, knowing that it is not impossible that he could leave Iowa with stupid momentum? Not really into that either, especially while he is on a heater. Like I said, I want to wait a little longer to see how this story shapes up. I am woke AF to the fact that I might be missing arbitrage opportunities to trade candidates who are riding the wave, but I am not interested in that. During HURRICANE SZN, the swells can get large fast.
I do not want to wipeout on a big volume trade while I’m trying to make a few cents per share on the margin.
Lastly, I also know that once this campaign advances from the pre-season to the knockout rounds in Iowa and New Hampshire, things will move quickly. The bullets will really start flying and within a few weeks, the leader board is going to look very different. Imagine what happens if:
— Joe Biden doesn’t place in the Top 3 of either of the first two primaries.
— Joe Biden wins Iowa.
— Elizabeth Warren fails to win Iowa or New Hampshire outright.
— Amy Klobuchar or Kamala Harris mount a surprising comeback.
— Mayor Pete’s wave falls off, peaks too soon, and he doesn’t do jack.
All of these situations are possible and would severely alter the current market odds. I won’t put a value on any of them, but I will say that once the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire are counted, there is a 60+ percent chance that this will happen to the field:
When it does, someone is going to pick up the ball and be awarded that Miami U turnover chain.
And someone else is going to get wrecked by the storm:
Not me. It’s Florida in the fall, boys. And I do not want to risk my ship until there is a better forecast. My move in Iowa and New Hampshire is to wait and see.
Check back for PT 2 — the Impeachment Hurricane — tomorrow.