Here is Your Turnout Model for the Louisiana Governors Race
As many of you know, the State of Louisiana will be electing its governor on Saturday. I personally think that Louisiana is an insane place and do not actually understand how it works. Part of this is because I am not even sure that they speak English there. For example, listen to LSU Football coach Ed Orgeron talk:
Ordinarily I would say that Coach O should be elected President of the United States immediately. One reason is that he has a proven ability to build and lead a purple team. Another is that Donald Trump has been fighting a trade war with China and it is not going great, but Coach O just defeated Alabama, which is proof that he can win against an evil Red empire.
I personally think it is a huge bummer that Coach O is not on the ticket for this week’s gubernatorial run-off in Louisiana. Instead we are stuck with Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards and Republican challenger Eddie Rispone. Their race is crazy close.
HOWEVER —
Because I have created an election tool that will help you fill your bag of gold on election day.
Those of you who are true savages followed my coverage of the Kentucky Gubernatorial election where I initially made the wrong prediction, then robbed the bank because I am a genius and could see from the early returns that things were going to go south for GOP Gov. Matt Bevin. The fact that I could not get get this information out to all of you in time made me so depressed that even watching the entire Rambo filmography did not snap me out of my funk. I had to crank a few Modelos with the boys and re-enact the football scene from Point Break to do that.
But at the end of the day, hardship is the greatest teacher.
Here is one of KEENDAWG’s RULES that KY taught me:
The safest way to make money during tight races is to get a jump on the returns, know what they are telling you, and make some fast trades to front-run the results. This is easy to do if you are a genius who has done his homework, which I have done for you (see below). I pulled the voting data for the last seven statewide races in Louisiana and made a chart with some bellwether parishes on it.
Because you have these, you will not need to wait for Chuck Todd to explain what it means if the GOP vote does not come out in Jefferson Parish; or if Rep. Ralph Abraham’s voters don’t show up in NE Louisiana.
Here is why I chose these parishes:
— They are either Republican or Democratic ride-or-die strongholds; or
— East Baton Rouge, which is the most populous parish and historically a jump ball; or
— They are conservative strongholds in Ralph Abraham’s district and will tell us if his people are getting out to vote.
Check it out:
[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTFRW6PP9sVjnwziDj7CwnvR0uPve6BdSkyjmH7COdG_QlVrGJmUFx_R1QvD3asihnnXXM9LuzwMeUd/pubhtml” query=”widget=true&headers=false” /]
#LFG!!!!
Consider yourself armed.
You can thank me by following me on Twitter and sharing this blog with a friend.
KEENDAWG.
