Happy Thanksgiving + Black Friday Doorbusters in Political Gambling
Political Animals, I would like to wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving. As you are aware, on this holiday we celebrate the day when the Pilgrims invited the Native Americans to crush beers, eat turkey, and play touch football with them at Plymouth Rock. Some parts of this story are disputed, like the fact that the Pilgrims played football (they were English so they probably played soccer), that they crushed beers (they were religious AF), or that this meal even happened at all (the Indians did not speak English so dinner would be awkward). I personally do not care whether or not the tale of the first Thanksgiving is true or not though because Thanksgiving is a great American holiday that brings all of us joy.
However, today I would like to focus on a related American tradition, which is Black Friday. Most of you are aware that Black Friday is a consumer holiday where people get the chance to purchase deeply discounted TVs and iPhones for a few hours before the Best Buy/Walmart store they are inside of turns into a prison riot.
But big box stores are not the only place where great buying opportunities are available on Black Friday. PredictIt is too. That is because there are plenty of political gambling opportunities currently available that are basically equivalent to free money on sale for anyone. Like everywhere else on Black Friday, these prices will balance out to normal by Christmas– so buy now and buy cheap!
Here is our list of Black Friday Doorbusters for your PredictIt Christmas Wish List. Got any others?/ Send them my way.
Presidential Nominee Markets
Michael Bloomberg at 11 cents – Michael Bloomberg is, on average, clocking 2.3 percent support in the polls, so it makes total sense that the market is giving him five times that chance of winning the race. Oh wait, it doesn’t. Fade this line and sell it when it collapses to 7. If and when Michael Bloomberg the candidate emerges, it won’t be until after South Carolina when the retail dopes who pumped this value up to ~13 have dumped their shares.
Amy Klobuchar at 3 cents – There is no candidate more ripe for a flavor-of-the-week media pump than Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The Fake News Media (FNM) is seriously invested in telling the story of the 2020 Election like a season of TV where every character gets an arc and an episode. As a friendly Midwestern moderate, Sen. Klobuchar is tailor-made to over-perform in Iowa where her brand of Minnesota retail politics can go a long way. She is just primed for a media pump and so is my position with a YES at 4 cents. I’m gonna sell it at 8, and you should too.
Will Hillary Clinton run in 2020 @ 85 cents. This is stupid. She’s not running. Buy NO and thank me later.
Will Michelle Obama run in 2020 @ 91 cents. Uhhh… same thing.
Will Beto run for Senate by 12/9? I already milked this cow and my cup runneth over. That said, there is still plenty of value for you to squeeze out of Beto’s politically non-producing utters. NO wins.
Impeachment Markets
Will Trump be impeached in 2019 @ 41 cents? I have honestly never heard of a way to turn one dollar into two as fast as buying YES here, unless you count cutting a kilo of Bolivian cocaine with baking soda and just standing in the middle of a frat party at ASU with coke dust on the lapel of your jacket that reads, “Yes, I have blow and you can buy it.” Trump is getting impeached this year, case closed. YES WINS.
Will Trump be impeached in his first term @ 73 cents? If you don’t think this is happening you are a farm animal. YES WINS.
How many impeachment articles against Trump by 3/31? No on 0 at 78 cents. If you believe that Trump is going to get impeached then you believe there will be more than zero impeachment articles against him. This is settled science and depending on the day, you may be able to get better pricing on this bet than the one above. NO on “0” wins.
Will Don McGahn testify publicly in 2019? Nope. This case is headed to the appellate courts and that isn’t gonna happen by Christmas. NO WINS.
Will Adam Schiff still be the Chairman of the House Intel Committee at the end of 2019? Who are the peasants who think the Dems are going to pull their impeachment quarterback with the game on the line? Actually, you should be grateful to them because they are going to stuff your pockets with cash.
Trump Kim meeting in 2019? Trump’s favorite way to change the subject in any bad news cycle is by making a surprise visit to Kim’s house. Besides the fact that I am dying to know what the small talk is between a president who “grabs ’em by the pussy” and a dictator who once executed a family member with an anti-aircraft cannon, I have always taken the YES side of these bets and I have always won. It’s feeling like long odds now but if impeachment gets too hot — don’t be surprised to see Trump on a beach in Thailand, drinking (a non alcoholic beverage) out of a coconut with Kim.
I hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving and that your cornucopias are full of alpha. I’ll see you on the back end for what is going to be a very chaotic Holiday Season, as Congress wrestles with a temporary funding bill for the government, an impeachment resolution, and the USMCA free trade agreement.
KEENDAWG.
KEENDAWG, you are a deranged moron.
Do you have a particular criticism or just think I am fake news? If you disagree with any of my takes and can make a compelling point, I will publish your views.
Do you think that the decision to impeach (or not impeach) Trump in 2019 will have any effect on USMCA passage? Are those conflicting priorities or are they completely separate issues?
Yes and no. It’s really all about floor time right now, though both bills are heavy lifts. If they can hammer out a USMCA agreement by tomorrow I’d be bullish on it passing. But gov runs out of money Dec 20, impeachment has to happen and all of that backed up against Christmas. I have been holding NO and selling whenever it gets up into the 80s. Keep in mind that Pelosi can count on 90 percent of Republicans to support so she doesn’t need a unified caucus. I’ve written a few articles about USMCA. most recent one is here: https://starspangledgamblers.com/2019/11/19/in-case-you-werent-already-confused-about-usmca-there-is-this/