One of my favorite things about betting on politics is that sometimes the skills that you need to win are more basic than a first date at The Cheesecake Factory. When it comes to betting and winning on PredictIt, sometimes being able to count is all that it takes. That is exactly the case in this bangarang market, where we get to bet on how many articles of impeachment Nancy Pelosi is going to throw at Il Duce aka Donald Trump.
Unfortunately, to get started I needed to consult with the Fake News Media (FNM) for a bit. That is because I am not a lawyer (I am a genius, it is a whole different thing) so I needed to find out from the internet what all the possible impeachment articles were. The best source I could find was this interview with Judge Andrew Napolitano, who is a judge in New York and a Fox News contributor. He also looks like a character in a live-action Muppets remake of Glenn Gary, Glenn Ross.
Judge Napolitano’s take was that there are possibly five impeachment articles that the House could throw at Trump. They are, allegedly:
(1) Bribery aka withholding military aid from the Ukraine until they promised to investigate the Bidens.
(2) Inviting foreign interference in the 2020 election… by doing the above.
(3) Obstruction of Congress… by not letting White House officials testify about the Ukraine scandal or have access to their records when and if they did.
(4) Lying under oath to Robert Mueller’s Russia Probe with regard to something boring about Roger Stone.
(5) Obstructing Justice during the Mueller Probe/Russiagate Nothingburger.
I will add a sixth here:
(6) An Emoluments Clause violation for Trump fostering an expectation that dignitaries will stay in his hotels.
Now that we know all of the possible naughties that Nancy Pelosi could ground Trump for, we need to figure out which ones will actually turn into impeachment articles. Fortunately, this part is easy because Congressional Impeachment Big Dawg Adam Schiff (D-CA) has been barking for the whole world to hear. Take a look at his November 25 “Dear Colleague” letter to update Congress on the state of impeachment after two weeks of hearings. The key is being able to decipher his dawg whistles, which I have included with my notes:
So as far as I am concerned, this is proof that we are going to see a minimum of 2-3 articles of impeachment, with three being the most likely outcome. This is due to the fact that Trump is not going to start suddenly cooperating with Rep. Adam Schiff who he knows hates him more than I hate being sober during a Cops marathon. So an Obstruction Charge is coming in hot, making the answer THREE.
Now is the part where some of you will say, “Fake news!” and point out that I am not addressing possible impeachment articles from the Mueller Probe and the Emoluments Clause. However this is also where you need to remember that I am a genius and have the most-read website on the internet.* Let me remind you how The Mueller Report and subsequent hearings went for people who were lit AF to impeach Trump. It started like this:
And ended like this:
Mueller just never caught on. It was honestly the biggest nothingburger of a year that also included the movie Solo: A Star Wars Story as well 14 games played by the Miami Dolphins. Let’s add a few more points:
(1) Unlike the Mueller Report, which the public did not give a sh*t about, the Ukraine Scandal has moved the needle enough for a narrow majority of Americans to support impeachment. Why water-down the fragile consensus for a Ukraine-based impeachment with Mueller “crimes” that no one gives a crap about except for people who get their jollies by pounding oat milk during The Rachel Maddow Show and pretending that they want to adopt a child of color.
(2) There are four Democratic Senators running for President, all of whom are required by the Constitution to sit in the Senate Chamber for six days a week during an Impeach Trial proceeding WITHOUT TALKING. This will probably be happening right when Iowa is getting Fukishima hot. So umm… Yeah.
More articles = longer trial. There are other incentives in play but it is 100 percent a fact that Democrats have plenty of reasons to want this trial to end quickly, especially since the end result is not in doubt. I personally will eat my shoe if the Godfather aka Mitch McConnell’s Senate does not review the charges against Trump and come to this conclusion about him:
“Privately, Democrats believe they could end up with three to four articles of impeachment: one or two focused on the presidentâ€™s alleged abuse of power related to Ukraine, another chronicling his obstruction of congressional requests for witnesses and documents, and potentially an article focused on findings by Mr. Mueller charging Mr. Trump with obstructing justice when he tried to thwart the Russia investigation.”
If you ask me, the answer is THREE. If you want to play it safe, then you go LONG on both 3 and 4 articles for a total cost of 60-70 cents, or take NO on on 0, 1, and 2. It’s up to you — but it’s free money either way.
*According to my cousin Josh who sells bootleg cigs at Fantastic Sam’s