I Am Officially Retired from Handicapping the USMCA
I do not even know how to respond to the absolute brawl going on over the U.S. Mexico-Canada (USMCA) tree trade agreement. I have been pumping NO on this for six months. Today I woke up and thought all was lost, that Nancy “the GOAT” Pelosi and The Godfather aka Mitch McConnell had found a way to thread the needle and get this done by Christmas. I complimented my close personal friend Ron Vara (the #1 YES supporter) on getting the best of me and accepted the fact that though I had profited in this market, it would ultimately go down as a failed prediction from the Keendawg. BTW, Ron Vara, you are still a hero and I stand by you and everything you represent. Your insights are strong and you deserve to be in the pantheon of savages.
But then — once again — the unthinkable happened. Speaker Pelosi announced a historic deal, President Trump started pumping hard for an ASAP vote, and Senate GOP Whip John Thune absolutely wrecked the party for YES holders.
Senate Majority Whip John Thune says the Senate will likely take up the USMCA in January because senators will want to review it this month and next week will be spending bills judges and maybe NDAA
— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) December 10, 2019
Holy sh*t. WTF is going here?
I will explain by doing my favorite thing– quoting myself. Also, I’ve got some new material at the bottom of this page:
In my most recent post I said that…
“…Day four [after Trump Admin signing a new trade pact] is Friday, December 13!!! On this day, it’s going to be getting hot AF in Congress because– remember — USMCA is still up against funding the government, passing a defense authorization, and impeaching Trump. And to make it even worse, Congressional Appropriators have been flapping their jaws about how they want to do all 12 budgets bill in regular order… not by a one-off continuing resolution!! 12 approps bills in 2 weeks!!???
Do I think they can pull this off? Idk. But moving more than a handfull of bills through regular order could rip victory right off YES holders’ hands at the 11th hour Gollum-style.
THE CASE FOR NO:
(1) Nancy Pelosi has more legislative priorities than pairs of dentures right now;
(2) Cocaine Mitch has very limited floor time.
(3) The only people who get boned if this bill moves to 2020 are; (1) small business holders and farmers; and (2) moderate Dems in swing seats. You know what Cocaine Mitch is thinking:
(4) USMCA is realistically the only must-pass bill that can wait to 2020, so if things get jammed-up, it’s the first to go.
Ladies and Gentleman, I take my bow.
HOWEVER— NEW STUFF:
Let me be true with you: as of today, I am out of this market. I sold my last remaining shares (32 of them) at a loss to protect the profit I had scraped-out by laying off my NO position at ~78 cents per share (my entry was 63 — too high). That is my way of saying that this market has gotten so hot that even I no longer believe what I am saying about it. I am officially announcing my retirement from the USMCA. Someone else can pick up the torch because it has burned my hand.
Here are some closing things to watch for to whoever those heroic young bucks may be:
NEW THOUGHTS FOR THE NEXT GEN:
Trump is going to be leaning on Senate Republicans to do this ASAP, regardless of what John Thune says.
— But does Trump have any juice with them? NO. He’s counting on Senate Rs to acquit him and is basically their bitch right now.
— Does that mean the Senate for sure won’t pass this bill? NO. They have their own conflicting priorities, including the fact that The Godfather aka Mitch McConnell is up for re-election and would probably like to talk about a big accomplishment like this while he is at home for Christmas.
Like I said animals, it is HOT AF in here and I am done.
Now I will leave you with a gallery of USMCA illustrations for those of you who are visual learners.
However —
But wait–
I Just bought a few more NO shares.
F*CK.
See you in OT, Ron Vara. You’re a hero.
KEENDAWG.
1 thought on “I Am Officially Retired from Handicapping the USMCA”