MAILBAG: Impeachment Week 1, Trader Shout-Outs


Political Animals, I have heard from a few of you this week. Here is the incoming — the good, the bad, and the ugly. Check it out. Some of you have better ideas for trades and sharper political predictions than even my genius can even detect.

Got a tip? A market you want to follow? Or do you think I’m just a moron? Hit me up in my DMs and we’ll talk. I have lots to learn from you guys too.

FROM PETER – Curious Correlations

Hey Man!

Today is an amazing day on PredictIt.  You can sell your Impeachment YES and buy HIllary NO for as low as .75.  (There must be some Q-Anon drop going on…).  There are also Hillary YES offers scattered around the state primary markets which will pay off in ~3 months.

This is a ~25% profit in six months (assuming you can sell at the DNC).

Peter — I am speechless. I also have carpel tunnel from grinding out blogs so I will keep this short. But MY MAN… just savage. I picked up a few Hillary NO shares at 79 thanks to you.

FROM DRIFTER – Free Money for those Who Are Woke to It


Random market for your blog: Will Don McGahn testify in 2019?

There’s a bunch of news articles about how a judge denied the government request for a stay order. Shame how the court of appeals ALSO has a stay order, and if you think there’s any chance they’re not going to bother waiting to hear scheduled oral arguments then I have a bridge to sell you. There isn’t a chance in hell he [McGahn] is going to testify.

The price seems to have dropped overnight. The Very Fake impeachment articles must have people realize there weren’t going to be more hearings. Sad!

Drifter – I made some coin when this market went from 60/40 to 90/10. If there is still value here at the end of the year I might just pop-in. Right now spreads are too appealing in some other places for a budget-conscious trader (me). This is definitely free money though.

FROM JONATHAN — Keendawg, You literally took food off my table

Hello Keendawg,

Unfortunately, I’m getting murdered on my Yes positions for three and four impeachment articles:

Should I hold out or cut my losses? Impeachment is expensive!

Not Panicking,


Jonathan — WOOF. Dump it. I posted a second piece on the case for two articles… kinda got lucky there. Sorry.  


CONGRATULATIONS ZOLTAR: After taking one of the worst beats of the year in the U.S. Census market, you have returned to glory.

zoltar leaderboard

Let’s see if he can keep it up?

CONGRATULATIONS RON VARA. For those of you who are not betting the USMCA trade agreement, you should now about Ron Vara. He is an absolute legend who needs to be in the Smithsonian Museum. He’s made some ballsy calls, not all of which have worked– but hey, we are all mortal. This guy is a hard hitter and deserves to get stinky rich.

Screen Shot 2019-12-10 at 8.45.49 AM

Let’s see how things go as the USMCA heads into overtime.


Bad beat? Hilarious call? Robbed the bank? General awesomeness? Hit me up and we’ll give them a shoutout for you.


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