Shutdown: WTF is Going On and Why Are People Being So Nice Right Now?

Animals, one of the things that I am the most upset about is the fact that people in Congress are low key being nice to one another. I know that sounds completely bonkers given the fact that Trump’s Impeachment hearings have been dirtier than the Battle of the Bastards, but outside of Rep. Jerry Nadler and Rep. Adam Schiff’s civility slaughterhouses on the Hill, Congressmen and Senators are being really cool to each other. They are basically just swapping spit Left and Right to seal the deal on some bills that partisanship could have cockblocked.

It is almost like the impeachment is giving them cover to do the right thing.

First, there was the massive love triangle between Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, and the U.S. Mexico Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA).

what happens in mexico

The reversals in this market almost vaporized me but it turned out that I was a genius and correctly predicted that the Senate would have to wait until January to finish USMCA, despite the fact that The Godfather aka Mitch McConnell’s Republican Senate was totally ready to give up its V(ote) card to it.

But there is another place in Congress were our elected officials are getting extremely bi-curious. That is the bi-partisan effort to avoid a government shutdown, which you can bet on here:

shutdown market

First of all, there is no shutdown coming.

Here is why:

(1) The people who actually know what is going on and who actually matter say that there won’t be a shutdown. By this I do not mean “experts” in the Fake News Media or professor types (I am not a fan of learning). I mean the Chairmen of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, which are alone responsible for keeping the money pipeline open for the government.

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY) gave a joint press conference on Tuesday where Rep. Lowey said that, “We can finish our work with a couple of loose ends by the end of the week” while Sen. Shelby stood hip-to-hip with her.

shelby lowey
Two lovebirds earlier this year.

I guess opposites do attract.

And last week CNN reported that both Chambers of Congress were trying to reach an agreement on all 12 appropriations bills. It would be more boring than baseball for me to explain to you why that piece of information matters, but just take my word for it. Congress trying to pass 12 approps bills is way more work than patching things up with a continuing resolution. This tells me that everyone’s goals are aligned and no one is panicking.

(2) The circumstances that lead to the last two shutdowns are gone. Let me remind you: the 2013 shutdown basically happened because the House Republicans threw a prison riot over spending and Speaker John Boehner just happened to drop the soap.

boehner sorry

The 2018-2019 shutdown happened because Speaker Paul Ryan had lost the GOP locker room after getting absolutely nuked in the Midterm elections, and President Trump refused to sign a bill that didn’t give his border wall an extra few billion dollars.

Neither of these situations will be a problem this year because (1) the Democrats control the House and they do not care at all about how much money they spend, as long as there is plenty of funding for the NSF to study the effects of climate change on transgender mice; and (2) The Godfather aka Mitch McConnell has Trump’s nuts in a vice grip. Trump is basically depending on the GOP Senate to acquit him once he is impeached, so he is no position to bone them by not signing a budget bill. Translation: the border wall is not going to be an issue this time because Trump’s balls are currently being stored in Cocaine Mitch’s glove compartment and the first step to getting them back is to not be a jackass by shutting down the government.

The play

I give a 2019 shutdown a 15 percent chance of happening. Right now the spot price of a NO share is between 75-80 cents. From the vantage point of price, this market is an OK opportunity. But I am very confident in the outcome and am going to make a medium-sized play on NO government shutdown happening.

shutdown bet

Those of you who are true savages can do the opposite and fade this line. Perhaps the Fake News Media will report that the bipartisan honeymoon is over and a budget deal is falling through — in which case your NO shares will shoot up in value for a short period of time as people panic. Your window to profit here will be shorter than a one-night stand though, because this deadline is coming fast and so is the inevitable.

No shutdown.


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