Given that is is Christmas, I have been doing a little bit of window shopping around PredictIt. I’ve been trying on a few Dem Primary markets to see if they fit and if the price is right; and deciding which candidates are on my naughty and nice lists.
One of the most rewarding parts about doing a little gambler’s line shopping is realizing that most of the other people betting on PredictIt are total farm animals. The bonkers pricing on some of these state primary markets tells me that there is a serious amount of dumb money that is reading clickbait headlines and rushing into terrible bets. BTW, if you know any of these people, we are here for them.
Back to the point. Let me unpack the big themes that the Fake News Media (FNM) is reporting these days:
— Iowans are coming out of the closet for Mayor Pete. He is the new Obama there due to the fact that Iowa LOVES to pick winners who are young and optimistic, and because he gave some speech that was vaguely Obama-like. Pete for the Iowa Caucuses win!!!
— Bernie Sanders beat death and is on an absolute rampage. He is charging in the polls and looks to have good chances in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
— After nuking the competition throughout summer and fall, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has been contaminated by the fallout from her radioactive policies. She now needs to work a lot harder than 9:00-5:00 to get back into the race.
— Joe Biden is going to win Southern states in a walk because black people just love him.
What does this mean? Let’s go through them one at a time.
EVERYONE IN IOWA IS HAVING A GAY OLD TIME FOR PETE!
Mayor Pete is having a great run right now and Iowans did give Barack O’Bama an upset win in 2008. But Iowans also picked John Kerry over John Edwards in 2004, which was the exact opposite of ballsy; and they picked Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by an eyelash in 2016.
Also, if you look at the charts on Real Clear Politics, it’s pretty clear that Presidential campaigns are going in-and-out of style in Iowa faster than Post Malone singles on pop charts. Voters are getting hooked for a few months and moving on.
Bootiggieg is now polling above Elizabeth Warren’s peak and six points below Biden’s max. It is safe to assume that even if he wins Iowa, this line will tighten before election day. Especially since the new heart throb in the Dem Primary is… BERNIE SANDERS.
BERNIE SANDERS IS ON A HEATER
Bernie Sanders is pumping hard on PredictIt and getting a huge boost in the Fake News Media but I do not know why. He is polling about as well nationally as he’s been polling all along. He’s also gaining ground in Iowa and New Hampshire… but gaining ground back to where he started.
I guess maybe people are getting woke to the fact that Bernie can win a few cupcakes in New England and possibly the Midwest on Super Tuesday; or maybe they just assume that all of Elizabeth Warren’s voters are in the bag for him if/when she fails (another massive assumption, omg).
Yeah, sure. America might be Feeling the Bern right now. But I have always thought the FNM was covering this election like a season of TV, where every one of the 50+ candidates gets their episode and arc. I guess Bernie is getting his right now but I personally would not stake my fortune on him being the champ.
ELIZABETH WARREN IS RADIOACTIVE RIGHT NOW!!
I mean, I guess. But this is the point I want to make. What comes up most go down. And will probably go back up again, as long as it is not named, “Kamala Harris.”
JOE BIDEN IS GOING TO WIN THE SOUTH IN A WALK
There is almost no evidence that low and middle income voters will pick any candidate other than Joe Biden. That said it looks like there are good odds that he is going to start the election season 0-2, after taking losses on the road in Iowa and New Hampshire.
This creates three interesting scenarios: (1) where Joe Biden gets crushed and can’t come back from huge losses like the Russian Army in WWI; (2) Where Joe Biden loses early but baits his enemies into his winter fortresses, then slaughters them like the Russian Army in WWII; or (3) where he pulls an upset in Iowa and the whole race is over, like the Bolsheviks machine gunning the czar’s whole family.
Some mix of scenario 1 and 2 is the most likely tho. I have been writing about how the southern primaries are a gold mine for Biden bettors but now those YES positions are getting a little pricey. But when Uncle Joe gets smoked in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, you better believe you can get in there for cheap when beta clowns start to think that Biden Scenario 1 is the trap they’ve stepped into.
So AL, MX, AR, and TX yes share will probably be on sale come February. I would wait to buy until then because over 60 is rich AF.
Why are you still talking, Keendawg?
The point is that there are two ways to make money by gambling on politics. One is by accurately predicting the future. This is actually very hard to do, even if you are a world renowned genius like me. But the other, easier way to make money by betting on politics is by betting on the one thing that is a 100 percent lock every time: that things will change. I am doing this everyday by finding opportunistic ways to bet against favorites who are overpriced and take some long positions on the field. We’ve got 7 weeks and at least two debates until the Iowa Caucuses so there is still plenty of time to cash in on the inevitable reversals that are coming.
BTW, here is a list of trades I have made in this space so far:
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As you can see, some of these positions I am holding until maturation. Some of them I am day trading for marginal gains. And some of them I am buying as PAIRS — Bernie/Warren combo in Maine, for example. But all of them are highly opportunistic purchases to exploit the small brains of the PredictIt farm animals making dumb bets.
You can do this too!!! Make your Christmas list of PredictIt wishes, time your buys wisely, and your stockings will be full of gold by Super Tuesday.