Every now and then even I amaze myself. I have been trying to crack the safe all night long to find the correct whip count for each impeachment article.
This is actually great news for you though, because I am highly experienced at committing bank robberies on PredictIt. And now that I have loaded up my bag with gold, I am going to tell you how to get rich too.
There will be fewer than 232 votes tomorrow for The Abuse of Power impeachment article. This is great information, since the bracket flips at 231 and the current odds for both are 50/50. And if you think I am a cuck loser (according to science this is false tho), you will still be a winner based on the information I am about to give you. See this video to get woke:
TL:DR — tomorrow, there is a very high probability that Rep. Jose Serrano will stick to his precedent of the last two months. That precedent is for him to stay at home in New York and bail on voting Congress. This is due to the fact that Serrano has Parkinson’s disease and hasn’t been in town since October. He did not even show up to vote for his own Commerce, Justice, Science Appropriations Act. And this is the last time CSPAN filmed him on the job.
Okay, before I go on, I need to take a bath to wash of the stink of profiting from someone else’s pain.
NOW FOR THE REST…
There are two assumptions built into this model: that Tulsi Gabbard votes to impeach Trump and that no Republicans do. 89 percent of traders agree that the second one won’t happen.
As for Tulsi, if you think that I am a moron and that she is going to vote NO on impeachment, then this information is still critical to you. That’s because it will push the whip count up in the Obstruction of Congress market and flip that bracket in your favor. I personally am hedging my bet there. Here is what this market looks like both ways:
I think that it is very unlikely that Tulsi votes NO on both impeachment articles and I favor her voting for BOTH. Basically, the only people left in America who want to see a Censure vote are the boneheads still holding NO shares on a 2019 impeachment. Even the Republicans are wet AF to get Trump impeached because they think it is juicing his re-election chances.
That said, if Tulsi splits her vote, I expect that she will do so the same way as Rep. Jared Golden is, by voting NO on Obstruction and YES on Abuse of Power. I have made my bets accordingly.
Dem. Rep. Jared Golden, from a district Trump won in 2016, said in a statement that he will split his vote on articles of impeachment, voting to approve the article accusing Pres. Trump of abuse of power and against the article on obstruction of Congress. https://t.co/sO87uKtJXW
— CNN (@CNN) December 18, 2019
How Many Yea Votes on Abuse of Power – NO to 232+
How many Yea Votes on Obstruction – NO to 230-231.
I hope this works.
PS– If any of you want to know how I arrived at a discovery this amazing, I will tell you the steps:
— Be a genius.
— Understand that something usually goes wrong, even during key votes.
— Scour recent votes to see who has been missing them.
— Ask yourself, “Why?”
— Use Google to find out why.
— Become overly confident, crank a few Modelos, get out your credit card, and hope for the best.
Good luck, Animals. We’re gonna need it.