Most of you probably think that I am a walking, talking hero who regularly does fearless things like rescuing puppies from the tops of smoldering volcanos or eating whole jars of jalapeños. I will not dispute these claims but I will say this: just because I overcome my fears does not mean that I do not have them. Acting in spite of fear is part of being a winner. And right now there is a subset of political prediction markets that are scaring the living sh*t out of me: the “Mention Markets” in Thursday’s Democratic Debate.
I have seen a lot of new ppl come into PredictIt lately so I will explain everything you need to know about “Mention Markets” here:
1 — You get to bet on what a politician will or won’t say during a major public appearance; and
2 — I am basically the Mozart of Mention Markets. I have never lost in them. Not once. This is even more badass than it sounds when you consider the fact that even Caesar took a few Ls on the way to conquering the world.
This means that:
3 — I now have a streak to protect. And everyone knows what happens to great dynasties that try to protect their streak.
The give up the big one.
So I guess the pressure is on.
Now let me cut to the point. The Mention Market that I like the most for this debate is this one:
How Many candidates will say “billionaire?” Honestly this one seems so easy that I am wondering if I am the bonehead. Everyone knows that Bernie and Warren have both said, “billionaire” in every debate but one.
But there is another politician who just loves to flap his jaw about billionaires. That guy is Mayor Pete Buttigieg. He just loves to talk about “billionaires” whenever people ask him about why he does not support free college tuition for everyone:
Instead of providing free college tuition for the children of millionaires and billionaires, I will open doors of opportunity for Americans who choose not to go to college with massive investments in apprenticeships, workforce training, and lifelong learning programs.
— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) November 19, 2019
And if you go on YouTube to listen to some of his stump speeches, you’ll see that this is the first talking point that Mayor Pete pulls out whenever someone asks him why he is opposed to giving away free stuff to everyone– because it would subsidize “billionaires!”
There is also a historical record of Joe Biden talking about “billionaires” in the occasional moments where he is lucid. Also Sen. Amy Klobuchar has cracked two jokes about billionaire’s since these debates got started. I decided to do the math and this is what came out:
Lastly, there is a school of thought that says Tom Steyer will say “billionaire” because he is rich AF and someone will want to hold him accountable for that. This is a totally valid question due to the fact that politics is dominated by mediocre people who rarely get their work done on time. That said, I think the Tom Steyer angle is fake news and that he will avoid using the term “billionaire,” since it is a massive downer to be successful in the Democratic Party.
For my entire career, I've only had one client: The People. https://t.co/qp1EX4ouGz
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) November 20, 2019
NEWS: Elizabeth Warren was compensated nearly $2 million over about three decades for doing consulting & other legal work, per campaign.
She previously disclosed the cases she worked on but compensation is new amid calls by Mayor Pete to release more tax returns. Story up soon
— Josh Jamerson (@joshjame) December 9, 2019
Long story short, I am taking THREE BILLIONAIRE MENTIONS as the winner here. As you can see from the table above, “billionaire” mentions are trending up. I might hedge by buying in the 2 or 4 category too. Not sure yet. But I definitely am picking up some shares in 3.
Let’s keep this streak alive. Because I do not feel like getting shanked by Brutus tonight.
UPDATE: I’m still long THREE and have small hedges at TWO and FOUR.