For that, I have taken more abuse in the last 24-hours than the the Cleveland Browns took in the past decade.
Anyway, the more I think about it, the more I realize that with less than one month to go before the Iowa Caucuses, the Democratic Primary is completely freaking me out. Every second I am just being haunted by possible outcomes that could destroy my positions. It is a total house of horrors to anyone making political predictions.
If you follow this blog, you know my take on how I think the early stages will go. My view is not particularly genius — I think it’s most likely that outcomes are chaotic and disorganized in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, and that there is enough volatility on PredictIt to trade NO shares of high-priced Bernie and Biden for profit before Super Tuesday hits. But this post is an effort to understand the ghosts that are haunting me. It is an attempt to understand THE HOUSE OF HORRORS that is the Democratic Primary.
Here are some variables in play:
Right now, Sen. Warren is buried in the polls. But with her shares trading between 10-13 cents in various PredictIt markets, she could be the top value trade on the whole site. When I think about riding a 2nd place Warren finish in Iowa or NH up to a 20-25 cent valuation, I get stiffer than the bodies buried under The Overlook Hotel. This is a possible outcome. The problem is that I do not know which version of this candidate we are going to see in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Will it be this Elizabeth Warren, who is just a savage retail politician banging on voters’ doors:
Or will it be this Warren — who can be a know-it-all schoolmarm who annoys people:
CONVERSELY, DEM VOTERS LOOK PRETTY UNDECIDED TO ME–
A recent CBS poll has Mayor Pete, Bernie, and Biden in a 3-way tie in Iowa. FiveThirtyEight’s primary model is also projecting minuscule vote shares for the frontrunners in early states. Meanwhile, everyone is yapping about how Biden is a shoe-in to win South Carolina, but even he’s only polling in the high-30s there.
THIS TELLS ME THAT DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ARE STILL-
IT’S HARD TO SAY WHAT IS SCARING THEM OUT OF A CANDIDATE THOUGH.
Lack of excitement–
AND IF BIDEN AND BERNIE GO 1-2 IN THREE OF THE FIRST FOUR PRIMARIES???
Right now, Bernie and Biden are on bull-runs and are favorites to run the table in most of the early states. I am betting that this won’t happen and that there will be enough chaos in IA, NH, NV, and SC to profit off of holding NO shares on Biden and Bernie in Super Tuesday states. Basically, I am betting on a messy-ish primary where people freak out and dump their peak-value shares of BERNIE and BIDEN before Super Tuesday when this campaign gets turned up to 11.
But still– what if I am wrong?
What if Warren is headed out?
What if Mayor Pete’s voters never show up?
What if Amy Klobuchar doesn’t pump in Iowa?
What then will happen to my “NO” shares on Bernie and Biden?
I will get completely and totally–
The thought alone has me shook.
Only one thing to do.
Stay frosty, boys.